Will the top two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (123D) ]
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff | 2026-10-04 | 74.0% | $1.4K | $163K | B | 0x7b22ca…47a2 | ||
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff | 2026-10-04 | 64.0% | $1.1K | $36K | B | 0x023a8c…135f | ||
| Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff | 2026-10-04 | 17.3% | $40 | $54K | B | 0x42c969…7548 | ||
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff | 2026-10-04 | 5.2% | — | $27K | B | 0x003e6f…c971 | ||
| Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff | 2026-10-04 | 4.0% | $810 | $78K | B | 0xd73917…d280 | ||
| Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff | 2026-10-04 | 2.9% | — | $13K | B | 0x385cdd…e6cc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
"slug": "which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",
"question": "Will the top two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil",
"presidential-election",
"runoff",
"2026",
"candidate-advancement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 370385,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}