Will two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? [ resolved 2026-10-05 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $2 | $204K | B | 0x7b22ca…47a2 | ||
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 100.0% | $34 | $43K | B | 0x023a8c…135f | ||
| Romeu Zema | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $154 | B | 0xe8c7c6…dca7 | ||
| Ronaldo Caiado | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $486 | B | 0x29f48c…cac7 | ||
| Renan Santos | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $1 | $3.9K | B | 0xfd2f08…6f01 | ||
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $81K | B | 0xd73917…d280 | ||
| Jair Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | $14K | B | 0x385cdd…e6cc | ||
| Fernando Haddad | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $60 | $64K | B | 0x42c969…7548 | ||
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | $4 | $34K | B | 0x003e6f…c971 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
dadosabertos.tse.jus.br venue-listed Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Romeu Zema qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | polymarket | 2026-10-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Flávio Bolsonaro runoff qualification priced near certain at 98% 98% · $57K 24h
- Polymarket prices Flávio Bolsonaro qualifying for a presidential runoff at 98%, treating it as a virtual lock.
- $56,924 in 24h is 26% of all-time volume, confirming traders are actively reaffirming, not just passively holding, this near-certainty.
- High confidence in runoff qualification aligns with polling showing Bolsonaro as the clear second-place consolidator on the right.
- Resolves YES if Flávio Bolsonaro finishes top-two in the first round.
- Flavio Bolsonaro runoff qualifying priced at 97% 97% · $57K 24h
- Polymarket prices Flavio Bolsonaro reaching Brazil's presidential runoff at 97%, near certainty.
- 26% of all-time volume hit in 24h, affirming the market has little doubt about this outcome.
- Volume likely reflects traders hedging or closing positions as the question nears resolution.
- Resolves on official Brazilian first-round results in 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
"slug": "which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",
"question": "Will two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"brazil",
"presidential-election",
"runoff",
"2026",
"candidate-qualification"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 444838,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "dadosabertos.tse.jus.br",
"url": "https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}