Flavio Bolsonaro runoff qualifying priced at 97%

Name: Flavio Bolsonaro runoff qualifying priced at 97%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-04T07:48:35+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

97% · $57K 24h

record: CMSIG20261004VS04 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3 | published: 2026-10-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Flavio Bolsonaro reaching Brazil's presidential runoff at 97%, near certainty.
26% of all-time volume hit in 24h, affirming the market has little doubt about this outcome.
Volume likely reflects traders hedging or closing positions as the question nears resolution.
Resolves on official Brazilian first-round results in 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $56.6K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x023a8c2fd2a78c29c9748a44205e2cbe624d86c11ee41b81d4067ddbbf2a135f

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-flavio-bolsonaro-qualify-for-brazil-vol-56566/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-flavio-bolsonaro-qualify-for-brazil-vol-56566.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-flavio-bolsonaro-qualify-for-brazil-vol-56566")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261004VS04",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T07:48:35+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-J1PPP75GK3",
  "target_event_slug": "which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",
  "event_question": "Will two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Flavio Bolsonaro reaching Brazil's presidential runoff at 97%, near certainty.",
    "26% of all-time volume hit in 24h, affirming the market has little doubt about this outcome.",
    "Volume likely reflects traders hedging or closing positions as the question nears resolution.",
    "Resolves on official Brazilian first-round results in 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 56566.752005
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will two candidates advance to Brazil's presidential ru",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-candidates-will-advance-to-brazils-presidential-runoff",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T07:48:35+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261004VS04 published 2026-10-04T07:48:35+00:00 signature sha256-543f647a34f… ← underlying event all signals →