Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election? [ resolves 2026-09-30 (119D) ]
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary… | 2026-09-30 | 56.0% | $5.8K | $2.94M | C | 0x502a94…ed64 | ||
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary… | 2026-09-30 | 35.0% | $5.6K | $1.21M | C | 0xc9615b…50e7 | ||
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the… | 2026-09-30 | 5.3% | $2.1K | $2.35M | C | 0x8c48f3…439a | ||
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats… | 2026-09-30 | 3.9% | $771 | $723K | C | 0x7b9199…e252 | ||
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian… | 2026-09-30 | 0.5% | $8.4K | $633K | C | 0xa04f9a…425b | ||
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $7.4K | $1.10M | C | 0x2636a0…5c46 | ||
| Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary… | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $9.5K | $650K | C | 0x247eab…8034 | ||
| Will Party A gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc65fb0…7e4e | ||
| Will Party J gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe3d35b…3bf3 | ||
| Will Party L gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb6d0ec…3edf | ||
| Will Party Q gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe0150e…f2ca | ||
| Will Party S gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa12fa4…86ab | ||
| Will Party T gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x02d0a4…769d | ||
| Will Party B gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x771aad…dcfb | ||
| Will Party D gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a2237…7c5a | ||
| Will Party E gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb28818…bf17 | ||
| Will Party G gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7216f9…a466 | ||
| Will Party O gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb31b49…3a3a | ||
| Will Party U gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x935758…9c67 | ||
| Will Party X gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfc671c…e0bd | ||
| Will Party Z gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb7a553…4103 | ||
| Will Party C gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc24d49…d2d7 | ||
| Will Party F gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6db6cc…70d2 | ||
| Will Party I gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb4104a…ba57 | ||
| Will Party W gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe1b6a6…aeca | ||
| Will Party Y gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4642b6…5bea | ||
| Will Other gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x09b62d…0e65 | ||
| Will Party H gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb67d2d…2ca2 | ||
| Will Party K gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1b1308…f828 | ||
| Will Party M gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf16968…69bc | ||
| Will Party N gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc9f126…3051 | ||
| Will Party P gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf4ef37…953e | ||
| Will Party R gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x10398c…9842 | ||
| Will Party V gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdcd150…e9fd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XS1TS19GP7",
"slug": "which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
"question": "Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"russian-parliament",
"2026",
"electoral-outcomes",
"geopolitical"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9610182,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 27,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}