Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election? [ resolved 2026-09-30 ]
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $154 | $1.17M | C | 0x7b9199…e252 | ||
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $299 | $1.21M | C | 0xa04f9a…425b | ||
| The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $415 | $3.03M | C | 0x8c48f3…439a | ||
| New People (NL) | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | $2.2K | $1.85M | C | 0xc9615b…50e7 | ||
| United Russia (ER) | 2026-09-30 | 100.0% | $9.3K | $6.16M | C | 0x502a94…ed64 | ||
| Rodina | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | $716 | $2.01M | C | 0x2636a0…5c46 | ||
| Civic Platform (GP) | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.26M | C | 0x247eab…8034 | ||
| Other | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x09b62d…0e65 | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc65fb0…7e4e | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x771aad…dcfb | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc24d49…d2d7 | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a2237…7c5a | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb28818…bf17 | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6db6cc…70d2 | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7216f9…a466 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb67d2d…2ca2 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb4104a…ba57 | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe3d35b…3bf3 | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1b1308…f828 | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb6d0ec…3edf | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf16968…69bc | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc9f126…3051 | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb31b49…3a3a | ||
| Party P | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf4ef37…953e | ||
| Party Q | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe0150e…f2ca | ||
| Party R | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x10398c…9842 | ||
| Party S | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa12fa4…86ab | ||
| Party T | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x02d0a4…769d | ||
| Party U | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x935758…9c67 | ||
| Party V | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdcd150…e9fd | ||
| Party W | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe1b6a6…aeca | ||
| Party X | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfc671c…e0bd | ||
| Party Y | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4642b6…5bea | ||
| Party Z | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb7a553…4103 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| YES | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 100% |
| NO | Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | polymarket | 2026-09-21 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- United Russia holds the Duma at near-certainty 100% · $7.4M 24h
- Polymarket prices United Russia at 100% to win the most seats, outcome treated as resolved.
- 24h volume of $7.4M represents 31% of all-time volume, a major single-session commitment.
- Surge likely tied to election cycle confirmation or official results entering the market window.
- Contract resolves on next Russian parliamentary election seat totals.
- New People winning the Duma stays a 0% long shot 0% · $1.5M 24h
- Polymarket prices New People (NL) at 0% to lead the Duma, the market sees no path.
- 25% of all-time volume traded in 24h, mirroring the United Russia flush on the same election.
- Coordinated volume across the Russian parliamentary suite suggests settlement or bloc positioning.
- Resolves on official seat count from the next Russian parliamentary election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XS1TS19GP7",
"slug": "which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
"question": "Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"russia",
"parliamentary-seats",
"2026",
"party-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16694352,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}