New People winning the Duma stays a 0% long shot

Name: New People winning the Duma stays a 0% long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-21T07:48:00+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

0% · $1.5M 24h

record: CMSIG20260921VS01 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-XS1TS19GP7 | published: 2026-09-21

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices New People (NL) at 0% to lead the Duma, the market sees no path.
25% of all-time volume traded in 24h, mirroring the United Russia flush on the same election.
Coordinated volume across the Russian parliamentary suite suggests settlement or bloc positioning.
Resolves on official seat count from the next Russian parliamentary election.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $1.48M

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xc9615bb82d6535d630ff98e8094060bc767d8b9446516e98f84d2001a35e50e7

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-vol-1484721/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-vol-1484721.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-new-people-nl-gain-the-most-seats-vol-1484721")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260921VS01",
  "published_at": "2026-09-21T07:48:00+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XS1TS19GP7",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
  "event_question": "Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices New People (NL) at 0% to lead the Duma, the market sees no path.",
    "25% of all-time volume traded in 24h, mirroring the United Russia flush on the same election.",
    "Coordinated volume across the Russian parliamentary suite suggests settlement or bloc positioning.",
    "Resolves on official seat count from the next Russian parliamentary election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1484721.4055420002
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Par",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:48:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260921VS01 published 2026-09-21T07:48:00+00:00 signature sha256-229d16fae78… ← underlying event all signals →