Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | $422 | $424K | C | 0x84dc47…7f79 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (4)
South Korea from rules text North Korea from rules text the United Nations from rules text any permanent member of the UN Security Council from rules text
recent wire items
- North Korea invading South Korea stays near zero odds Polymarket 1%
- Polymarket prices only a 1% chance North Korea invades South Korea before 2027.
- The missile launch and border mine incidents are escalatory signals, yet the Polymarket contract is consistent with viewing this as provocation, not invasion precursor.
- Kim Jong Un remaining Supreme Leader through year-end sits at 96% implied (4% on exit), a stable leadership picture that reduces invasion scenario odds.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; a confirmed cross-border military invasion, not a missile test or skirmish, is required.
- North Korea invading South Korea before 2027 stays near zero Polymarket 1%
- Polymarket puts 1% on North Korea invading South Korea before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.
- The missile launch and rising border tensions are consistent with provocation but the market does not treat them as a prelude to full invasion.
- Companion contract on Kim Jong Un losing power by December 31, 2026 sits at 4%, also on Polymarket via UMA oracle, suggesting regime continuity is the base case.
- Resolution via UMA oracle requires confirmed military invasion; missile tests and border incidents fall well short of the resolution threshold.
- North Korea invading South Korea stays near zero odds Polymarket 1%
- The Polymarket prediction market puts only 1% on North Korea invading South Korea before 2027, despite the DMZ mine incident and Pyongyang's retaliation warning.
- The denial-plus-warning posture from Pyongyang is a familiar escalation pattern; the market is treating it as signaling behavior rather than a genuine invasion precursor.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Kim Jong Un no longer being Supreme Leader by December 31, 2026 sits at 4%, also a long shot, suggesting no regime instability is priced.
- Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle; an actual cross-border military incursion would be required for resolution, not a skirmish or mine incident alone.
- North Korea invasion of South Korea stays near zero odds Polymarket 3%
- The Polymarket contract on North Korea invading South Korea before 2027 sits at 3%.
- Cutting the drill short after North Korea's missile barrage is a de-escalatory signal, consistent with the market assigning near-zero invasion probability.
- The Kim Jong Un leadership contract on Kalshi sits at 4% for departure by year-end, suggesting continuity at the top further limits tail-risk scenarios.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; an invasion requires a recognized armed incursion across the border, setting a high evidentiary bar for Yes settlement.
- North Korea invading South Korea before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 3%
- Polymarket prices only 3% on North Korea invading South Korea before 2027, a deep long-shot despite the diplomatic shift.
- Trump cutting drills short and praising Kim Jong Un is a significant security signal, but markets are not pricing an imminent invasion scenario.
- The news and market pricing diverge in magnitude, the geopolitical gesture is real, but the Polymarket contract shows no escalation pricing.
- Resolves via UMA oracle on a confirmed North Korean military invasion, a high evidentiary bar that keeps the contract anchored near zero.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
"slug": "will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027",
"question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"military-conflict",
"korea",
"2026",
"state-actors",
"armed-invasion"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 423802,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "South Korea",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "North Korea",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the United Nations",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "any permanent member of the UN Security Council",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}