Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 2.7% | $6.6K | $257K | C | 0x84dc47…7f79 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (4)
- South Korea from rules text · editorial
- North Korea from rules text · editorial
- the United Nations from rules text · editorial
- any permanent member of the UN Security Council from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
"slug": "will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027",
"question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"military-conflict",
"korea",
"2026",
"state-actors",
"armed-invasion"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 257268,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "South Korea",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "North Korea",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the United Nations",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "any permanent member of the UN Security Council",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}