Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027	2026-12-31	4.6%		$559	$248K		C	`0x84dc47…7f79`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
  "slug": "will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027",
  "question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
  "category": "geopolitics",
  "tags": [
    "geopolitics",
    "military-conflict",
    "korea",
    "2026",
    "state-actors",
    "armed-invasion"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 247626,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 30,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →