North Korea invasion of South Korea stays near zero odds

Name: North Korea invasion of South Korea stays near zero odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 3%

record: CMSIG2026082108 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2 | published: 2026-08-21

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract on North Korea invading South Korea before 2027 sits at 3%.
Cutting the drill short after North Korea's missile barrage is a de-escalatory signal, consistent with the market assigning near-zero invasion probability.
The Kim Jong Un leadership contract on Kalshi sits at 4% for departure by year-end, suggesting continuity at the top further limits tail-risk scenarios.
Resolution via UMA oracle; an invasion requires a recognized armed incursion across the border, setting a high evidentiary bar for Yes settlement.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The US and South Korea wrapped up the Ulchi Freedom Shield drill six days early, one day after North Korea launched a missile barrage.exa_search → apnews.com · as_of 2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00
publisher: apnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/north-south-korea-us-drills-trump-kim-e0350e23feac60adfa60f2cbf5eff27f

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket holds North Korea invasion odds at 3% despite the missile barrage, treating the early drill end as a net stabilizing signal.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x84dc47b1dd9cd99a9217b92a95690729334b647650bb6bf676bb31c3db0d7f79

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-21/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-21.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-21")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082108",
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
  "target_event_slug": "will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on North Korea invading South Korea before 2027 sits at 3%.",
    "Cutting the drill short after North Korea's missile barrage is a de-escalatory signal, consistent with the market assigning near-zero invasion probability.",
    "The Kim Jong Un leadership contract on Kalshi sits at 4% for departure by year-end, suggesting continuity at the top further limits tail-risk scenarios.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; an invasion requires a recognized armed incursion across the border, setting a high evidentiary bar for Yes settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/north-south-korea-us-drills-trump-kim-e0350e23feac60adfa60f2cbf5eff27f",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US and South Korea wrapped up the Ulchi Freedom Shield drill six days early, one day after North Korea launched a missile barrage.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/north-south-korea-us-drills-trump-kim-e0350e23feac60adfa60f2cbf5eff27f"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds North Korea invasion odds at 3% despite the missile barrage, treating the early drill end as a net stabilizing signal."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: US and South Korea wrap up Ulchi Freedom Shield drills 6 days early |",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/north-south-korea-us-drills-trump-kim-e0350e23feac60adfa60f2cbf5eff27f",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026082108 published 2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-940afec795d… ← underlying event all signals →