Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 5.6% | $9.9K | $3.42M | C | 0x3b0107…606c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto sources (2)
- intel.arkm.com venue-listed
- https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Satoshi Bitcoin movement by year-end consensus holds deeply skeptical Polymarket 6%
- Polymarket prices only a 6% probability that Satoshi moves any Bitcoin by end of 2026, resolved via UMA oracle.
- The quantum freeze debate draws fresh attention to dormant Satoshi coins, but the market treats voluntary movement by Satoshi as a very low-probability event regardless of the external threat.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-77NC57P468) puts only 5% on Satoshi moving any Bitcoin by 2027, showing near-identical skepticism across venues and a slightly longer horizon.
- The near-zero pricing across both venues implies the market is not pricing in the quantum threat as a trigger for Satoshi action, the proposal itself is the news, not evidence of movement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3030994QH5",
"slug": "will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026",
"question": "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"satoshi-nakamoto",
"on-chain-activity",
"2027",
"dormant-wallet"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3416336,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "intel.arkm.com",
"url": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}