Satoshi Bitcoin movement by year-end consensus holds deeply skeptical

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070407",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T18:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-3030994QH5",
  "target_event_slug": "will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only a 6% probability that Satoshi moves any Bitcoin by end of 2026, resolved via UMA oracle.",
    "The quantum freeze debate draws fresh attention to dormant Satoshi coins, but the market treats voluntary movement by Satoshi as a very low-probability event regardless of the external threat.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-77NC57P468) puts only 5% on Satoshi moving any Bitcoin by 2027, showing near-identical skepticism across venues and a slightly longer horizon.",
    "The near-zero pricing across both venues implies the market is not pricing in the quantum threat as a trigger for Satoshi action, the proposal itself is the news, not evidence of movement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/04/bitcoin-experts-split-over-plan-to-freeze-satoshi-s-1-1-million-bitcoin-as-quantum-threat-grows",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Binance founder Changpeng Zhao proposed freezing Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million Bitcoin before quantum computers can compromise them, sparking fierce industry debate.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T18:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/04/bitcoin-experts-split-over-plan-to-freeze-satoshi-s-1-1-million-bitcoin-as-quantum-threat-grows"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket binary contract resolving via UMA oracle; cross-venue agreement at 5-6% makes this one of the most consensus-bound outcomes in the crypto prediction market landscape."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: A plan to freeze the creator's Bitcoin sparks fierce debate over crypt",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/07/04/bitcoin-experts-split-over-plan-to-freeze-satoshi-s-1-1-million-bitcoin-as-quantum-threat-grows",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T18:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-05T10:07:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}