Blue tsunami odds hold near fully priced after midterm results

Name: Blue tsunami odds hold near fully priced after midterm results
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 99%

record: CMSIG2026110603 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610 | published: 2026-11-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami contract at 99%, reflecting the reported scale of Democratic gains across both chambers.
News confirms Democrats exceeded 250 House seats, consistent with pricing at the upper bound of certainty.
The distinction between this contract and the blue wave contract on Kalshi (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2, also 99%) suggests both thresholds are viewed as cleared.
Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source; traders should monitor the exact resolution criteria for tsunami versus wave.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Democrats flipped more than 250 House seats in the 2026 midterms, with the Guardian reporting a blue wave sweeping Congress.exa_search → Adam Fulton · as_of 2026-11-07T07:48:17+00:00
publisher: Adam Fulton
published_at: 2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z
source_url: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/nov/05/midterm-elections-live-latest-updates-mississippi-senate-race?page=with%3Ablock-6aec156f8f08a66ebb9277f4

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract at 99% is fully consistent with reported Democratic electoral sweep.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("2026-blue-tsunami-kalshi-99-2026-11-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110603",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami contract at 99%, reflecting the reported scale of Democratic gains across both chambers.",
    "News confirms Democrats exceeded 250 House seats, consistent with pricing at the upper bound of certainty.",
    "The distinction between this contract and the blue wave contract on Kalshi (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2, also 99%) suggests both thresholds are viewed as cleared.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source; traders should monitor the exact resolution criteria for tsunami versus wave."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Adam Fulton",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/nov/05/midterm-elections-live-latest-updates-mississippi-senate-race?page=with%3Ablock-6aec156f8f08a66ebb9277f4",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T07:48:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats flipped more than 250 House seats in the 2026 midterms, with the Guardian reporting a blue wave sweeping Congress.",
      "publisher": "Adam Fulton",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/nov/05/midterm-elections-live-latest-updates-mississippi-senate-race?page=with%3Ablock-6aec156f8f08a66ebb9277f4"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 99% is fully consistent with reported Democratic electoral sweep."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Adam Fulton: US elections 2026 live: Democrats exceed 250 House seats as blue wave",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/nov/05/midterm-elections-live-latest-updates-mississippi-senate-race?page=with%3Ablock-6aec156f8f08a66ebb9277f4",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T07:48:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026110603 published 2026-11-06T02:09:49.000Z signature sha256-24df65fa3de… ← underlying event all signals →