Inflation above 4.5% in 2026 stays a long shot

Name: Inflation above 4.5% in 2026 stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket ladder

record: CMSIG2026101601 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3 | published: 2026-10-16

4-bullet brief | narrative

Ladder prices only 20% on CPI exceeding 4.5% in 2026, dropping to 7% at 5.0% and 4% at 6.0%.
Warsh's price-stability pledge is consistent with market pricing that treats runaway inflation as unlikely rather than imminent.
September CPI at 3.7% is already well inside the 4.5% threshold; the ladder's mass sits below that strike.
Resolution draws on official CPI data; any monthly print above 0.5% month-over-month through year-end would shift the distribution materially.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged price stability but gave no guidance on rate direction, leaving markets to assess inflation trajectory independently.exa_search → Elaine Kurtenbach · as_of 2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00
publisher: Elaine Kurtenbach
published_at: 2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-warsh-fed-ai-imf-4c80750c113a82a464a46f58a4fdab43

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder distribution on Polymarket/Kalshi equivalent; market treats the 4.5%-and-above scenario as a tail risk, not a base case.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xf4a457c3a455917897fd89aa7d1cea256a8b325eded3c05c7ff771c948fbeaad

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-cpi-above-4-5-ladder-prices-in-below-20-2026-10-16/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-cpi-above-4-5-ladder-prices-in-below-20-2026-10-16.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("2026-cpi-above-4-5-ladder-prices-in-below-20-2026-10-16")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101601",
  "published_at": "2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
  "target_event_slug": "how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026",
  "event_question": "2026 US CPI annual rate",
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices only 20% on CPI exceeding 4.5% in 2026, dropping to 7% at 5.0% and 4% at 6.0%.",
    "Warsh's price-stability pledge is consistent with market pricing that treats runaway inflation as unlikely rather than imminent.",
    "September CPI at 3.7% is already well inside the 4.5% threshold; the ladder's mass sits below that strike.",
    "Resolution draws on official CPI data; any monthly print above 0.5% month-over-month through year-end would shift the distribution materially."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Elaine Kurtenbach",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-warsh-fed-ai-imf-4c80750c113a82a464a46f58a4fdab43",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pledged price stability but gave no guidance on rate direction, leaving markets to assess inflation trajectory independently.",
      "publisher": "Elaine Kurtenbach",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-warsh-fed-ai-imf-4c80750c113a82a464a46f58a4fdab43"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution on Polymarket/Kalshi equivalent; market treats the 4.5%-and-above scenario as a tail risk, not a base case."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Elaine Kurtenbach: Fed chair Warsh pledges price stability but avoids hints about rates |",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-warsh-fed-ai-imf-4c80750c113a82a464a46f58a4fdab43",
      "published_at": "2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-16T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101601 published 2026-10-16T06:51:54.000Z signature sha256-56f6e4c55e8… ← underlying event all signals →