Total 2026 crypto hack value favored above $1.5B

Name: Total 2026 crypto hack value favored above $1.5B
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket ladder

record: CMSIG2026080408 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1 | published: 2026-08-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Prediction market ladder prices 76% odds that total 2026 crypto hack value exceeds $1.5 billion, with 26% above $2.0 billion.
The Coldcard breach, confirmed above $130 million and still ongoing at time of reporting, adds directly to the running 2026 total that the ladder is pricing.
Trading volume on a related contract (CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2) surged 2,865% day over day, a measured signal that the Coldcard hack is drawing significant fresh attention to crypto-security markets.
At 96% above $1.2 billion, the ladder already treats the lower threshold as near-certain; the question is whether the Coldcard losses plus prior hacks push the total through $2.0 billion by year-end.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Hackers stole over $130 million by exploiting a firmware bug in Coldcard hardware wallets, with at least 15 attackers involved and the exploit still live.exa_search → Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai · as_of 2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00
publisher: Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai
published_at: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/04/hackers-steal-over-130-million-by-exploiting-bug-in-offline-hardware-wallets/

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder pricing from prediction market strikes; resolution methodology unspecified but tracks aggregate reported hack values across 2026.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x41a7dc4ce12ab8c4529c8e74023fac32b63404423867b789b49245635c0460b4

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-ladder-76-2026-08-04/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-ladder-76-2026-08-04.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("2026-crypto-hack-total-above-1-5b-ladder-76-2026-08-04")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080408",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
  "target_event_slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Total 2026 crypto hack value (USD)",
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder prices 76% odds that total 2026 crypto hack value exceeds $1.5 billion, with 26% above $2.0 billion.",
    "The Coldcard breach, confirmed above $130 million and still ongoing at time of reporting, adds directly to the running 2026 total that the ladder is pricing.",
    "Trading volume on a related contract (CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2) surged 2,865% day over day, a measured signal that the Coldcard hack is drawing significant fresh attention to crypto-security markets.",
    "At 96% above $1.2 billion, the ladder already treats the lower threshold as near-certain; the question is whether the Coldcard losses plus prior hacks push the total through $2.0 billion by year-end."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai",
          "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/04/hackers-steal-over-130-million-by-exploiting-bug-in-offline-hardware-wallets/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Hackers stole over $130 million by exploiting a firmware bug in Coldcard hardware wallets, with at least 15 attackers involved and the exploit still live.",
      "publisher": "Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/04/hackers-steal-over-130-million-by-exploiting-bug-in-offline-hardware-wallets/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder pricing from prediction market strikes; resolution methodology unspecified but tracks aggregate reported hack values across 2026."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai: Hackers steal over $130 million by exploiting bug in offline hardware",
      "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/04/hackers-steal-over-130-million-by-exploiting-bug-in-offline-hardware-wallets/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080408 published 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-2a2204c95e2… ← underlying event all signals →