CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Alaska Governor-Senate GOP combo stays near zero odds

Kalshi 3%
record: CMSIG2026102906 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-09C696KZH3 | published: 2026-10-29
4-bullet brief | narrative
  • The Kalshi contract on a Republican Alaska Governor-Senate combo sits at just 3%, even as federal subpoenas roil the race.
  • Trading volume on this contract rose 8,669% day over day, indicating the DOJ subpoenas and Peltola investigation headlines are drawing heavy market attention.
  • Despite the political turbulence, the market is not repricing toward a Republican sweep in Alaska, the probability holds near zero.
  • The Kalshi contract on a new senator being elected in Alaska (CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7) sits at 31%, suggesting the market sees some Democratic vulnerability but not a full Republican flip.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
story
The Justice Department issued subpoenas in Alaska days before the midterms, amid a campaign investigation and calls for prosecution of Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola.exa_search → Bridget Brown, Michael Warren, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, Carley Petesch, Lisa Marie Pane · as_of 2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00
[mediated]
publisher
Bridget Brown, Michael Warren, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, Carley Petesch, Lisa Marie Pane
published_at
2026-10-29T07:02:00.000Z
source_url
https://apnews.com/live/trump-midterm-elections-news-updates-10-29-2026
[02] pm_response
interp
Kalshi prices the Alaska Republican sweep at 3% despite a dramatic volume spike, indicating the DOJ news drew attention without shifting consensus odds.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
[editorial]
evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict
auto_published
judge_confidence
n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template
news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal
cm_event
/events/kxaksengovcombo-26nov/
external
venue_a
https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAKSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPDEM
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/alaska-gov-senate-gop-combo-kalshi-3-2026-10-29/
JSONREST API for developershttps://clearmarket.fyi/signals/alaska-gov-senate-gop-combo-kalshi-3-2026-10-29.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_signal("alaska-gov-senate-gop-combo-kalshi-3-2026-10-29")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102906",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T07:02:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-09C696KZH3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaksengovcombo-26nov",
  "event_question": "Alaska Governor-Senate combo",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on a Republican Alaska Governor-Senate combo sits at just 3%, even as federal subpoenas roil the race.",
    "Trading volume on this contract rose 8,669% day over day, indicating the DOJ subpoenas and Peltola investigation headlines are drawing heavy market attention.",
    "Despite the political turbulence, the market is not repricing toward a Republican sweep in Alaska, the probability holds near zero.",
    "The Kalshi contract on a new senator being elected in Alaska (CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7) sits at 31%, suggesting the market sees some Democratic vulnerability but not a full Republican flip."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Bridget Brown, Michael Warren, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, Carley Petesch, Lisa Marie Pane",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/live/trump-midterm-elections-news-updates-10-29-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Justice Department issued subpoenas in Alaska days before the midterms, amid a campaign investigation and calls for prosecution of Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola.",
      "publisher": "Bridget Brown, Michael Warren, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, Carley Petesch, Lisa Marie Pane",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T07:02:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/live/trump-midterm-elections-news-updates-10-29-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices the Alaska Republican sweep at 3% despite a dramatic volume spike, indicating the DOJ news drew attention without shifting consensus odds."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxaksengovcombo-26nov/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAKSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPDEM",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Bridget Brown, Michael Warren, Luena Rodriguez-Feo Vileira, Carley Petesch, Lisa Marie Pane: Justice Department issues subpoenas in California, Alaska | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/live/trump-midterm-elections-news-updates-10-29-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T07:02:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T07:48:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1
record CMSIG2026102906 published 2026-10-29T07:02:00.000Z signature sha256-30719e126c1… ← underlying event all signals →