Hormuz ship transit by June 30 wavers near even odds

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060604",
  "published_at": "2026-06-06T07:51:28.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will any ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 58% chance that at least one ship transits the Strait of Hormuz by June 30.",
    "Active Iranian missile and drone launches toward the Strait are consistent with a market still below 60% on even minimal commercial transit resuming.",
    "The companion near-term Hormuz normalization contract sits at only 20% for full traffic return by end of June, reflecting deep skepticism on full reopening.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping traffic data; even a single confirmed transit triggers yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://1-e8259.azureedge.net/news/2026/6/6/us-intercepts-iranian-attacks-as-israel-continues-to-bomb-lebanon",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-07T10:26:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. forces struck Iranian coastal radar sites, further straining a fragile ceasefire.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-06-06T07:51:28.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://1-e8259.azureedge.net/news/2026/6/6/us-intercepts-iranian-attacks-as-israel-continues-to-bomb-lebanon"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 58% on any transit reflects cautious optimism amid live exchanges of fire, a far cry from normalcy pricing."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
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    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
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      "benchmark": null
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Iran fires missiles at Gulf after US targets Iranian radar sites | US-",
      "url": "https://1-e8259.azureedge.net/news/2026/6/6/us-intercepts-iranian-attacks-as-israel-continues-to-bomb-lebanon",
      "published_at": "2026-06-06T07:51:28.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-07T10:26:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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