Will any ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (3) · single authority
- https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 venue-listed
- portwatch.imf.org venue-listed
- IMF Portwatch source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| YES | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| NO | Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Any Hormuz transit by June 30 consensus wavers at long-shot Polymarket 28%
- Polymarket prices only 28% on any ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, consistent with the UN halting its evacuation plan after the attack.
- The UN suspension of evacuation operations directly reinforces the below-50% pricing on near-term transit resumption.
- The June 30 unrestricted-shipping contract at 31% and this any-transit contract at 28% are closely clustered, suggesting the market sees even minimal transit as uncertain.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org traffic data; the IMF's port-watch feed is the named settlement source, giving the contract an objective, delay-resistant resolution path.
- Any Hormuz transit by June 30 holds at low single odds Polymarket 28%
- Polymarket prices any ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 at just 28%, despite tanker repositioning news.
- Tankers exiting the blockade zone signals tentative movement but markets treat physical Strait transit as a materially higher bar than repositioning in the Gulf of Oman.
- The unrestricted shipping contract (Polymarket 31%) is priced nearly identically, suggesting markets see minimal probability of partial transit without full reopening.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org transit data; vessel tracking will be the settlement arbiter, not diplomatic statements.
- Any Hormuz ship transit by June 30 consensus wavers at majority Polymarket 58%
- Polymarket prices 58% on at least one ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026.
- Tehran's closure claim and ongoing US-Iran exchanges of fire push against this majority, but the market still leans toward at least token transit occurring, consistent with Trump's reported claim that the US secretly escorted over 200 commercial ships through Hormuz.
- The 58% versus 13% on full unrestricted shipping agreement by June 30 shows the market distinguishes between a technical transit and a formal deal.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping traffic data; a single US-escorted vessel would likely satisfy the contract's 'any ships' threshold, making the resolution definition critical.
- Hormuz ship transit by June 30 wavers near even odds Polymarket 58%
- Polymarket prices a 58% chance that at least one ship transits the Strait of Hormuz by June 30.
- Active Iranian missile and drone launches toward the Strait are consistent with a market still below 60% on even minimal commercial transit resuming.
- The companion near-term Hormuz normalization contract sits at only 20% for full traffic return by end of June, reflecting deep skepticism on full reopening.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping traffic data; even a single confirmed transit triggers yes.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
"slug": "will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",
"question": "Will any ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"strait-of-hormuz",
"shipping-logistics",
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 251162,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}