Any Hormuz transit by June 30 holds at low single odds

Name: Any Hormuz transit by June 30 holds at low single odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-17T08:57:25.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 28%

record: CMSIG2026061705 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3 | published: 2026-06-17

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices any ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 at just 28%, despite tanker repositioning news.
Tankers exiting the blockade zone signals tentative movement but markets treat physical Strait transit as a materially higher bar than repositioning in the Gulf of Oman.
The unrestricted shipping contract (Polymarket 31%) is priced nearly identically, suggesting markets see minimal probability of partial transit without full reopening.
Resolves via portwatch.imf.org transit data; vessel tracking will be the settlement arbiter, not diplomatic statements.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iranian tankers exited the US blockade zone ahead of ceasefire talks, with cargo vessels observed repositioning in the Gulf of Oman.exa_search → Al Jazeera Staff · as_of 2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00
publisher: Al Jazeera Staff
published_at: 2026-06-17T08:57:25.000Z
source_url: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/first-iranian-tankers-exit-us-blockade-zone-ahead-of-peace-talks

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 28% on any transit and 31% on unrestricted shipping by June 30 are nearly convergent, implying an all-or-nothing market read on Hormuz reopening.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xc38b96e6fb12fc68d003ff326f2a11eb3c8f04c2fce7fcfc9d62f5e18131817c

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/any-ship-transit-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-17/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/any-ship-transit-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-17.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("any-ship-transit-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-polymarket-28-2026-06-17")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061705",
  "published_at": "2026-06-17T08:57:25.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VB1YHPRLZ3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30",
  "event_question": "Will any ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices any ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 at just 28%, despite tanker repositioning news.",
    "Tankers exiting the blockade zone signals tentative movement but markets treat physical Strait transit as a materially higher bar than repositioning in the Gulf of Oman.",
    "The unrestricted shipping contract (Polymarket 31%) is priced nearly identically, suggesting markets see minimal probability of partial transit without full reopening.",
    "Resolves via portwatch.imf.org transit data; vessel tracking will be the settlement arbiter, not diplomatic statements."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Al Jazeera Staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/first-iranian-tankers-exit-us-blockade-zone-ahead-of-peace-talks",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iranian tankers exited the US blockade zone ahead of ceasefire talks, with cargo vessels observed repositioning in the Gulf of Oman.",
      "publisher": "Al Jazeera Staff",
      "published_at": "2026-06-17T08:57:25.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/first-iranian-tankers-exit-us-blockade-zone-ahead-of-peace-talks"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 28% on any transit and 31% on unrestricted shipping by June 30 are nearly convergent, implying an all-or-nothing market read on Hormuz reopening."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Al Jazeera Staff: Iranian tankers exit US blockade zone before talks to end war | US-Isr",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/first-iranian-tankers-exit-us-blockade-zone-ahead-of-peace-talks",
      "published_at": "2026-06-17T08:57:25.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-17T12:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026061705 published 2026-06-17T08:57:25.000Z signature sha256-f949d878543… ← underlying event all signals →