August CPI rise above 0.4 percent priced near a coin flip
Kalshi 45%
record: CMSIG2026060404 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-D057W6W251 | published: 2026-06-04
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi implies August 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.3-0.4% range: 61% above 0.3% but only 45% above 0.4%.
- Hot ISM prices-paid readings are consistent with a market expecting continued above-target monthly inflation prints.
- The 84% probability above 0.1% signals near-universal rejection of any near-term disinflation.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics official CPI release for August 2026.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- ISM PMI surveys beat estimates in May with manufacturing at a four-year high, but employment is contracting while prices stay hot.exa_search → Pippo June 4, 2026 4:02 AM UTC in Analysis · as_of 2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Pippo June 4, 2026 4:02 AM UTC in Analysis
- published_at
- 2026-06-04T04:02:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi contract resolves against the BLS official CPI monthly change figure.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxcpi-26aug/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-3-0-4-kalshi-2026-06-04/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/aug-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-3-0-4-kalshi-2026-06-04.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("aug-2026-cpi-monthly-change-seen-0-3-0-4-kalshi-2026-06-04") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026060404",
"published_at": "2026-06-04T04:02:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
"target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
"event_question": "August 2026 monthly CPI change",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi implies August 2026 CPI monthly change in the 0.3-0.4% range: 61% above 0.3% but only 45% above 0.4%.",
"Hot ISM prices-paid readings are consistent with a market expecting continued above-target monthly inflation prints.",
"The 84% probability above 0.1% signals near-universal rejection of any near-term disinflation.",
"Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics official CPI release for August 2026."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Pippo \nJune 4, 2026 4:02 AM UTC in Analysis",
"source_url": "https://www.babypips.com/analysis/headline-ism-pmi-surveys-beat-estimates-may-fed-dilemma-2026-06-04",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "ISM PMI surveys beat estimates in May with manufacturing at a four-year high, but employment is contracting while prices stay hot.",
"publisher": "Pippo \nJune 4, 2026 4:02 AM UTC in Analysis",
"published_at": "2026-06-04T04:02:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.babypips.com/analysis/headline-ism-pmi-surveys-beat-estimates-may-fed-dilemma-2026-06-04"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi contract resolves against the BLS official CPI monthly change figure."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26aug/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Pippo \nJune 4, 2026 4:02 AM UTC in Analysis: ISM PMI Surveys Beat Estimates in May, But Fed’s Dilemma Got Worse - B",
"url": "https://www.babypips.com/analysis/headline-ism-pmi-surveys-beat-estimates-may-fed-dilemma-2026-06-04",
"published_at": "2026-06-04T04:02:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T11:14:54+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1