August CPI near flat stays the market call after PPI miss

Name: August CPI near flat stays the market call after PPI miss
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026091001 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-D057W6W251 | published: 2026-09-10

4-bullet brief | narrative

The CPI ladder prices the August 2026 month-on-month change in the 0.3-0.4% range: 97% above 0.1%, but only 59% above 0.3% and 13% above 0.4%.
August PPI came in at -0.1% versus +0.3% expected; the CPI ladder's implied range is notably above the PPI print, suggesting markets see CPI as still positive despite the producer-price shock.
The mismatch between a deep PPI undershoot and a CPI ladder still centered near 0.3% points to a services/shelter wedge keeping consumer inflation stickier than wholesale prices.
The Kalshi contract on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2026 sits at 76%, a cross-check on whether Friday's CPI would need to deliver a second consecutive surprise to shift that terminal rate view.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: August PPI fell 0.1% month-on-month versus a +0.3% consensus, dramatically undershooting and collapsing near-term rate-hike odds ahead of Friday's CPI print.exa_search → PomiNews · as_of 2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00
publisher: PomiNews
published_at: 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://pomegra.io/news/august-ppi-falls-01-rate-hike-odds-collapse

[02] pm_response

interp: The CPI ladder carries priced strikes from -0.4% through 1.0% and resolves on the Bureau of Labor Statistics August CPI release; no single strike dominates above 0.3%.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxcpi-26aug/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/august-cpi-implied-near-0-3-0-4-ladder-after-ppi-undershoot-2026-09-10/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/august-cpi-implied-near-0-3-0-4-ladder-after-ppi-undershoot-2026-09-10.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("august-cpi-implied-near-0-3-0-4-ladder-after-ppi-undershoot-2026-09-10")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091001",
  "published_at": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D057W6W251",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26aug",
  "event_question": "August 2026 CPI month-on-month change",
  "bullets": [
    "The CPI ladder prices the August 2026 month-on-month change in the 0.3-0.4% range: 97% above 0.1%, but only 59% above 0.3% and 13% above 0.4%.",
    "August PPI came in at -0.1% versus +0.3% expected; the CPI ladder's implied range is notably above the PPI print, suggesting markets see CPI as still positive despite the producer-price shock.",
    "The mismatch between a deep PPI undershoot and a CPI ladder still centered near 0.3% points to a services/shelter wedge keeping consumer inflation stickier than wholesale prices.",
    "The Kalshi contract on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2026 sits at 76%, a cross-check on whether Friday's CPI would need to deliver a second consecutive surprise to shift that terminal rate view."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "PomiNews",
          "source_url": "https://pomegra.io/news/august-ppi-falls-01-rate-hike-odds-collapse",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "August PPI fell 0.1% month-on-month versus a +0.3% consensus, dramatically undershooting and collapsing near-term rate-hike odds ahead of Friday's CPI print.",
      "publisher": "PomiNews",
      "published_at": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://pomegra.io/news/august-ppi-falls-01-rate-hike-odds-collapse"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The CPI ladder carries priced strikes from -0.4% through 1.0% and resolves on the Bureau of Labor Statistics August CPI release; no single strike dominates above 0.3%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpi-26aug/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPI-26AUG-T0.4",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "PomiNews: August PPI Falls 0.1%, Rate-Hike Odds Collapse | Pomegra News",
      "url": "https://pomegra.io/news/august-ppi-falls-01-rate-hike-odds-collapse",
      "published_at": "2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-10T12:39:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091001 published 2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-e5921a9740a… ← underlying event all signals →