August unemployment rate priced near 4.0-4.1%, odds split

Name: August unemployment rate priced near 4.0-4.1%, odds split
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026082504 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-CN1M891289 | published: 2026-08-25

4-bullet brief | narrative

Prediction market ladder prices August U-3 unemployment at 4.0-4.1%, with 83% above 4.0% but only 49% above 4.1%, a near-even split at 4.1%.
Trading volume surged 8,876% day-over-day, signaling heavy fresh positioning likely triggered by the consumer confidence miss and labor market data flow this week.
The consumer confidence dip is consistent with the market pricing unemployment near 4.1%, where deteriorating expectations often precede hiring softness.
The September unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) implies 4.2-4.3%, suggesting the market prices a gradual one-month step up from current levels.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The Conference Board reported US consumer confidence edged down slightly in August, with future expectations turning more pessimistic.exa_search → The Conference Board · as_of 2026-08-26T08:38:02+00:00
publisher: The Conference Board
published_at: 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-slightly-in-august-302859371.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Prediction market volume jumped 89.8x day-over-day on the August U-3 contract, with the distribution nearly evenly split at the 4.1% strike.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxu3-26aug/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXU3-26AUG-T4.1

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/august-u-3-above-4-1-prediction-markets-49-2026-08-25/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/august-u-3-above-4-1-prediction-markets-49-2026-08-25.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("august-u-3-above-4-1-prediction-markets-49-2026-08-25")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082504",
  "published_at": "2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26aug",
  "event_question": "August 2026 U-3 unemployment rate",
  "bullets": [
    "Prediction market ladder prices August U-3 unemployment at 4.0-4.1%, with 83% above 4.0% but only 49% above 4.1%, a near-even split at 4.1%.",
    "Trading volume surged 8,876% day-over-day, signaling heavy fresh positioning likely triggered by the consumer confidence miss and labor market data flow this week.",
    "The consumer confidence dip is consistent with the market pricing unemployment near 4.1%, where deteriorating expectations often precede hiring softness.",
    "The September unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) implies 4.2-4.3%, suggesting the market prices a gradual one-month step up from current levels."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Conference Board",
          "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-slightly-in-august-302859371.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-26T08:38:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Conference Board reported US consumer confidence edged down slightly in August, with future expectations turning more pessimistic.",
      "publisher": "The Conference Board",
      "published_at": "2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-slightly-in-august-302859371.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Prediction market volume jumped 89.8x day-over-day on the August U-3 contract, with the distribution nearly evenly split at the 4.1% strike."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxu3-26aug/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXU3-26AUG-T4.1",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence Edged Down Slightly in August",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-slightly-in-august-302859371.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-26T08:38:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026082504 published 2026-08-25T14:00:00.000Z signature sha256-1ad9aca2e10… ← underlying event all signals →