Bank of England rate hike in 2026 nears full pricing

Name: Bank of England rate hike in 2026 nears full pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 98%

record: CMSIG2026103106 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-6D88JFZCW1 | published: 2026-10-31

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices a Bank of England rate hike in 2026 at 98%, near-certainty ahead of the expected November meeting decision.
Volume on this contract rose 3,746% day-over-day, confirming traders are actively positioning on an imminent BOE hike.
The WSJ's 'expected to raise rates' framing is fully consistent with the 98% market read, there is virtually no dissent priced in.
Resolution via UMA oracle on Polymarket; the 2% residual likely reflects tail risk from an unexpected hold rather than any genuine market doubt.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The WSJ's Week Ahead column flags the Bank of England as widely expected to raise rates in the week starting November 2.exa_search → Dow Jones Newswires staff · as_of 2026-11-01T07:48:20+00:00
publisher: Dow Jones Newswires staff
published_at: 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-midterms-jobs-data-in-focus-boe-expected-to-raise-rates-aa39e25d

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract with a 38.5x volume surge day-over-day; the near-unanimous pricing reflects forward guidance alignment, not a surprise.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/bank-of-england-rate-hike-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xf41cdb3c4e9921acd070fa36fb567f4075284a2e3b89f06a1a23667aeecdc545

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bank-of-england-hikes-in-2026-polymarket-98-2026-10-31/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bank-of-england-hikes-in-2026-polymarket-98-2026-10-31.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("bank-of-england-hikes-in-2026-polymarket-98-2026-10-31")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026103106",
  "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6D88JFZCW1",
  "target_event_slug": "bank-of-england-rate-hike-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Bank of England rate hike in 2026 at 98%, near-certainty ahead of the expected November meeting decision.",
    "Volume on this contract rose 3,746% day-over-day, confirming traders are actively positioning on an imminent BOE hike.",
    "The WSJ's 'expected to raise rates' framing is fully consistent with the 98% market read, there is virtually no dissent priced in.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle on Polymarket; the 2% residual likely reflects tail risk from an unexpected hold rather than any genuine market doubt."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Dow Jones Newswires staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-midterms-jobs-data-in-focus-boe-expected-to-raise-rates-aa39e25d",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T07:48:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The WSJ's Week Ahead column flags the Bank of England as widely expected to raise rates in the week starting November 2.",
      "publisher": "Dow Jones Newswires staff",
      "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-midterms-jobs-data-in-focus-boe-expected-to-raise-rates-aa39e25d"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract with a 38.5x volume surge day-over-day; the near-unanimous pricing reflects forward guidance alignment, not a surprise."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/bank-of-england-rate-hike-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Dow Jones Newswires staff: Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Midterms, Jobs Data in Focus; BOE Expec",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-midterms-jobs-data-in-focus-boe-expected-to-raise-rates-aa39e25d",
      "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T07:48:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026103106 published 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-49d375b977c… ← underlying event all signals →