Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 50 percent

Name: Bitcoin above $100K by year-end stays below 50 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026101307 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9 | published: 2026-10-13

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at 32%, with only 12% above $110K and 7% above $120K.
The whale movement of $378 million in long-dormant BTC is drawing attention, trading volume on this ladder surged 200x day over day, though current price near $83,000-$84,000 leaves a large gap to the $100K threshold.
The sharp dropoff from 32% above $100K to 12% above $110K indicates the market sees $100K as a plausible ceiling rather than a floor if Bitcoin does break out.
Resolves via CF Benchmarks pricing on December 31, 2026; the dormant whale's sell pressure, if realized, could weigh on the price trajectory needed to resolve YES.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: A dormant Bitcoin whale moved approximately $378 million in BTC after six years of inactivity, coinciding with Bitcoin trading near $83,000-$84,000 amid macro uncertainty.exa_search → theblock.co · as_of 2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00
publisher: theblock.co
published_at: 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-13-bitcoin-whale-moves-378-million-418383

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder on Bitcoin above $100K by year-end saw volume surge 200x day over day alongside the whale movement news, with market-implied probability at 32%.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-32-2026-10-13/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-32-2026-10-13.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("bitcoin-above-100k-by-dec-31-kalshi-ladder-32-2026-10-13")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101307",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxy-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price above $100K by Dec 31, 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices Bitcoin above $100K by December 31 at 32%, with only 12% above $110K and 7% above $120K.",
    "The whale movement of $378 million in long-dormant BTC is drawing attention, trading volume on this ladder surged 200x day over day, though current price near $83,000-$84,000 leaves a large gap to the $100K threshold.",
    "The sharp dropoff from 32% above $100K to 12% above $110K indicates the market sees $100K as a plausible ceiling rather than a floor if Bitcoin does break out.",
    "Resolves via CF Benchmarks pricing on December 31, 2026; the dormant whale's sell pressure, if realized, could weigh on the price trajectory needed to resolve YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theblock.co",
          "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-13-bitcoin-whale-moves-378-million-418383",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A dormant Bitcoin whale moved approximately $378 million in BTC after six years of inactivity, coinciding with Bitcoin trading near $83,000-$84,000 amid macro uncertainty.",
      "publisher": "theblock.co",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-13-bitcoin-whale-moves-378-million-418383"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on Bitcoin above $100K by year-end saw volume surge 200x day over day alongside the whale movement news, with market-implied probability at 32%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbtcmaxy-26dec31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCMAXY-26DEC31-99999.99",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theblock.co: Bitcoin whale moves $378 million in BTC after six years of dormancy: o",
      "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-13-bitcoin-whale-moves-378-million-418383",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101307 published 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-24de5d000a6… ← underlying event all signals →