Bitcoin Jul 24 price holds right at 50% on Kalshi

Name: Bitcoin Jul 24 price holds right at 50% on Kalshi
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-24T10:14:05+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

50% · $109K 24h

record: CMSIG20260724VS01 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-TTG377V2N9 | published: 2026-07-24

4-bullet brief | narrative

Market sits exactly at 50%, maximum uncertainty on which side of this price band Bitcoin closes today.
Kalshi sees $109K in 24h, representing fully half of all-time contract volume, decisive single-day crowding.
With today as resolution day, late-session volume reflects live directional positioning, not speculation about future dates.
Resolves at end of day Jul 24, 2026 based on Bitcoin's closing price relative to the band threshold.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $109.4K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbtcd-26jul2417/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T64999.99

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-price-on-jul-24-2026-vol-109392/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/bitcoin-price-on-jul-24-2026-vol-109392.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("bitcoin-price-on-jul-24-2026-vol-109392")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260724VS01",
  "published_at": "2026-07-24T10:14:05+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TTG377V2N9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcd-26jul2417",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Market sits exactly at 50%, maximum uncertainty on which side of this price band Bitcoin closes today.",
    "Kalshi sees $109K in 24h, representing fully half of all-time contract volume, decisive single-day crowding.",
    "With today as resolution day, late-session volume reflects live directional positioning, not speculation about future dates.",
    "Resolves at end of day Jul 24, 2026 based on Bitcoin's closing price relative to the band threshold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 109392.43
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbtcd-26jul2417/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCD-26JUL2417-T64999.99",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcd-26jul2417",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:14:05+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260724VS01 published 2026-07-24T10:14:05+00:00 signature sha256-1c8ec78facc… ← underlying event all signals →