Blue tsunami in 2026 midterms holds near 50 percent odds

Name: Blue tsunami in 2026 midterms holds near 50 percent odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 55%

record: CMSIG2026102207 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610 | published: 2026-10-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi prediction market puts 55% odds on a blue tsunami in the 2026 midterms, a slim majority-favored outcome.
Pollsters pointing to a great Democratic night are broadly consistent with Kalshi's pricing, but the 55% reading shows the market sees it as a coin-flip-plus rather than a certainty.
A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) on a generic blue wave sits at 84%, suggesting markets distinguish between a wave and the stronger tsunami threshold.
Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics as listed on Kalshi, the specific resolution criteria for 'blue tsunami' versus 'blue wave' will determine which contracts settle yes.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Four top pollsters said polls point to a strong Democratic night on November 3, though reliability of polling remains debated.exa_search → Riya Misra · as_of 2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00
publisher: Riya Misra
published_at: 2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/10/21/4-top-pollsters-on-what-worries-them-most-01126222

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi prices the blue tsunami at 55%, sitting well below the 84% blue wave contract and reflecting genuine market uncertainty about the magnitude of any Democratic sweep.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-10-22/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-10-22.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("blue-tsunami-in-2026-midterms-kalshi-55-2026-10-22")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102207",
  "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 55% odds on a blue tsunami in the 2026 midterms, a slim majority-favored outcome.",
    "Pollsters pointing to a great Democratic night are broadly consistent with Kalshi's pricing, but the 55% reading shows the market sees it as a coin-flip-plus rather than a certainty.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) on a generic blue wave sits at 84%, suggesting markets distinguish between a wave and the stronger tsunami threshold.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics as listed on Kalshi, the specific resolution criteria for 'blue tsunami' versus 'blue wave' will determine which contracts settle yes."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Riya Misra",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/10/21/4-top-pollsters-on-what-worries-them-most-01126222",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Four top pollsters said polls point to a strong Democratic night on November 3, though reliability of polling remains debated.",
      "publisher": "Riya Misra",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/10/21/4-top-pollsters-on-what-worries-them-most-01126222"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices the blue tsunami at 55%, sitting well below the 84% blue wave contract and reflecting genuine market uncertainty about the magnitude of any Democratic sweep."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Riya Misra: 4 Top Pollsters on What the Polls Are Really Saying",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2026/10/21/4-top-pollsters-on-what-worries-them-most-01126222",
      "published_at": "2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026102207 published 2026-10-22T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-af3ea268248… ← underlying event all signals →