Bitcoin price on August 7 centered near $64,500-$65,000

Name: Bitcoin price on August 7 centered near $64,500-$65,000
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026080608 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-PFHRR5PCZ2 | published: 2026-08-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder implies Bitcoin settling around $64,500-$65,000 on August 7: 71% above $64,000, 53% above $64,500, dropping to 34% above $65,000.
Despite a major active hardware wallet exploit and a sweeping security audit with 5,000 findings, the market-implied BTC price shows no collapse, current spot near $63,909-$64,832 is roughly consistent with the ladder.
The Bitcoin-above-$100K-by-September Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99) prices just 1-11% across its strikes, confirming the market sees no near-term recovery to six figures.
The year-end Bitcoin-above-$100K ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) sits at only 14%, indicating the market treats the security-incident week as a headwind to longer-term price recovery.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: A Bitcoin Red Team security audit reported 5,000 findings, compounding a week of negative Bitcoin security news including the $130M-plus Coldcard hardware wallet exploit.exa_search → cointelegraph.com · as_of 2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00
publisher: cointelegraph.com
published_at: 2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z
source_url: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-red-team-reports-5k-findings-in-sweeping-security-audit

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder resolves via Bitcoin spot price on August 7; the $64,500-$65,000 implied range is set against an active and unresolved exploit event.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbtcd-26aug0717/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T64999.99

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-price-aug-7-kalshi-ladder-64-500-65-000-2026-08-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-price-aug-7-kalshi-ladder-64-500-65-000-2026-08-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("btc-price-aug-7-kalshi-ladder-64-500-65-000-2026-08-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080608",
  "published_at": "2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PFHRR5PCZ2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcd-26aug0717",
  "event_question": "Bitcoin price on Aug 7, 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies Bitcoin settling around $64,500-$65,000 on August 7: 71% above $64,000, 53% above $64,500, dropping to 34% above $65,000.",
    "Despite a major active hardware wallet exploit and a sweeping security audit with 5,000 findings, the market-implied BTC price shows no collapse, current spot near $63,909-$64,832 is roughly consistent with the ladder.",
    "The Bitcoin-above-$100K-by-September Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-ZPMYBGJP99) prices just 1-11% across its strikes, confirming the market sees no near-term recovery to six figures.",
    "The year-end Bitcoin-above-$100K ladder (CM-EVT-0MWN62PNG9) sits at only 14%, indicating the market treats the security-incident week as a headwind to longer-term price recovery."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cointelegraph.com",
          "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-red-team-reports-5k-findings-in-sweeping-security-audit",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A Bitcoin Red Team security audit reported 5,000 findings, compounding a week of negative Bitcoin security news including the $130M-plus Coldcard hardware wallet exploit.",
      "publisher": "cointelegraph.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-red-team-reports-5k-findings-in-sweeping-security-audit"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Bitcoin spot price on August 7; the $64,500-$65,000 implied range is set against an active and unresolved exploit event."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbtcd-26aug0717/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCD-26AUG0717-T64999.99",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cointelegraph.com: Bitcoin Red Team Reports 5K Findings in Sweeping Security Audit",
      "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-red-team-reports-5k-findings-in-sweeping-security-audit",
      "published_at": "2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080608 published 2026-08-06T01:09:06.000Z signature sha256-740ca5e7d81… ← underlying event all signals →