CLARITY Act Senate vote before recess stays a long shot at 36%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080407",
  "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YTTGGKBGT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxclarityvote-26jul",
  "event_question": "Will the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prediction market puts only 36% odds on the Senate voting on the CLARITY Act before the August recess.",
    "Thune's public commitment to a floor vote this week is being faded by the market, which assigns a 64% probability the vote does not happen before recess.",
    "The tight four-day legislative window and competing priorities, including a government funding deal, are likely weighing on market confidence.",
    "Resolution: United States Congress official record of a Senate floor vote settles the Kalshi contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Shiraz Jagati",
          "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/regulation-and-legal/thune-clarity-act-vote-senate-recess/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he expects a floor vote on the CLARITY Act this week with only four legislative days left before the August recess.",
      "publisher": "Shiraz Jagati",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/regulation-and-legal/thune-clarity-act-vote-senate-recess/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices the CLARITY Act vote at only 36% despite the Majority Leader's public commitment, signaling skepticism about the timeline."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxclarityvote-26jul/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCLARITYVOTE-26JUL-AUG08",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Shiraz Jagati: Sen. Thune Says a CLARITY Act Vote Is Coming This Week",
      "url": "https://news.bitcoin.com/regulation-and-legal/thune-clarity-act-vote-senate-recess/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-04T10:33:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}