CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot

Name: CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-10T12:48:25.168Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 19%

record: CMSIG2026081006 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744 | published: 2026-08-10

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 19%, a clear long-shot read.
Trading volume on this Polymarket contract surged 1,787% day over day, reflecting a flood of fresh activity after the Senate delay announcement.
The Kalshi Senate vote-count ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implies fewer than 50 Yea votes, consistent with passage risk: 37% at 50 votes, falling sharply above.
The September 15 procedural vote is a hard gate; failure there would almost certainly push the probability to single digits for the 2026 deadline.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Senate Majority Leader John Thune pushed the CLARITY Act Senate vote to September 15, dimming hopes for 2026 passage.exa_search → Yuri Molchan · as_of 2026-08-11T08:49:29+00:00
publisher: Yuri Molchan
published_at: 2026-08-10T12:48:25.168Z
source_url: https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/congress-crypto-bill-delay-clarity-act-vote-pushed-to-september-as-2026-passage-hopes-fade/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 1,787% volume surge confirms the delay news drove sharp new attention to this contract.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x9cb23d04b2ded06147482076688b69b487a8d982c63ebdda2ab3678cf27cf390

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-19-2026-08-10/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-19-2026-08-10.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("clarity-act-signed-in-2026-polymarket-19-2026-08-10")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081006",
  "published_at": "2026-08-10T12:48:25.168Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 19%, a clear long-shot read.",
    "Trading volume on this Polymarket contract surged 1,787% day over day, reflecting a flood of fresh activity after the Senate delay announcement.",
    "The Kalshi Senate vote-count ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implies fewer than 50 Yea votes, consistent with passage risk: 37% at 50 votes, falling sharply above.",
    "The September 15 procedural vote is a hard gate; failure there would almost certainly push the probability to single digits for the 2026 deadline."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Yuri Molchan",
          "source_url": "https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/congress-crypto-bill-delay-clarity-act-vote-pushed-to-september-as-2026-passage-hopes-fade/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-11T08:49:29+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Senate Majority Leader John Thune pushed the CLARITY Act Senate vote to September 15, dimming hopes for 2026 passage.",
      "publisher": "Yuri Molchan",
      "published_at": "2026-08-10T12:48:25.168Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/congress-crypto-bill-delay-clarity-act-vote-pushed-to-september-as-2026-passage-hopes-fade/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 1,787% volume surge confirms the delay news drove sharp new attention to this contract."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Yuri Molchan: Congress Crypto Bill Delay: CLARITY Act Vote Pushed to September as 20",
      "url": "https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/regulation/congress-crypto-bill-delay-clarity-act-vote-pushed-to-september-as-2026-passage-hopes-fade/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-10T12:48:25.168Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-11T08:49:29+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081006 published 2026-08-10T12:48:25.168Z signature sha256-4d35798e58c… ← underlying event all signals →