Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 43.0% | $5.1K | $1.27M | A | 0x9cb23d…f390 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → Congress.gov sources (3) · single authority
- congress.gov venue-listed
- congress.gov venue-listed
- official information from the government of the United States from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 holds minority pricing Polymarket 36%
- Polymarket prices 36% on the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026.
- Warren's conflict-of-interest scrutiny of Trump's reported $1.4 billion crypto income introduces a bipartisan complication the market appears to be discounting moderately.
- At 36%, the market sees passage as a minority outcome; Senate opposition driven by disclosure concerns could widen that gap.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4 on broader crypto market structure legislation prices 40%, a tight spread suggesting cross-venue consensus on slim-but-real odds.
- CLARITY Act passage in 2026 holds below even odds at Polymarket Polymarket 43%
- Polymarket prices a 43% probability that the CLARITY Act is signed into law in 2026.
- Warren's ethics pushback and Trump's crypto income scrutiny are consistent with the below-even odds; the market does not yet see passage as a base case.
- Story 35 reports Trump has agreed to ethics amendments as the final hurdle; if confirmed, that could shift the distribution materially, but no official White House confirmation exists yet.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle on signing by the President; Senate passage and House reconciliation both remain prerequisites.
- US crypto Clarity Act signing by year-end holds near even odds Polymarket 52%
- Polymarket prediction market prices 52% on the U.S. Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026.
- Japan's sweeping crypto tax reform raises the stakes for U.S. competitiveness, and the near-coin-flip Polymarket price suggests U.S. legislation remains genuinely uncertain.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-25SXVWH5D4 prices 40% on any U.S. crypto market structure bill becoming law by January 1, 2027, a 12-point gap that may reflect different bill-scope definitions.
- Resolves via congress.gov confirmation that the Clarity Act has been signed into law by December 31, 2026.
- Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 consensus wavers near even odds Polymarket 41%
- Polymarket prices 41% on the Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026, resolving via congress.gov.
- Senator Daines's fall 2026 timeline is consistent with the near-even market price; the market is not treating the statement as a near-certain legislative commitment.
- FinCEN's concurrent proposal of new stablecoin CIP rules (Story 33) adds regulatory momentum context but does not directly move the Clarity Act contract.
- Resolves via congress.gov confirmation of enactment; a fall introduction window leaves limited floor time before year-end, which likely explains the sub-50% pricing.
- Clarity Act signing by year-end anchors at a coin flip Polymarket 48%
- Polymarket prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by end of 2026 at 48%, essentially a coin flip despite heavy industry lobbying.
- The coalition push signals urgency from the industry, but the market's near-even split reflects real legislative uncertainty in the Senate.
- Senator Cynthia Lummis's parallel warning that failure means waiting until 2030 adds context to why the industry is pressing hard now.
- Resolves via congress.gov; the bill must be signed into law, not merely pass one chamber, by December 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
"slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"us-legislation",
"trump-administration",
"2026-resolution",
"regulatory-policy",
"bitcoin-bitcoin"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1272788,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "Congress.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Congress.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "Congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the government of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}