Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 4.9% | $100K | $3.88M | A | 0x9cb23d…f390 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633 sources (2) · single authority
congress.gov venue-listed official information from the government of the United States from rules text
recent wire items
- Clarity Act signed into law stays a long shot Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 at just 5%, consistent with the Senate blocking it.
- The Senate vote against the CLARITY Act aligns with the market's near-zero probability; the pricing and the news are in agreement.
- Treasury's withdrawal of crypto surveillance rules is a separate regulatory concession that does not rescue the broader legislative framework.
- Resolution via Polymarket's uma_oracle; the contract requires a presidential signature by end of 2026, a bar the Senate block makes near-impossible this year.
- CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 stays long odds at 8 percent Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket prices only 8% on the CLARITY Act being signed into law by 2026, consistent with its Senate failure and no clear path to revival before year-end.
- The bill's collapse in a 49-50 cloture vote is a hard structural barrier; the market's 8% reflects near-zero legislative runway in the remaining 2026 calendar.
- The CFTC's pivot to rulemaking via existing authority signals regulators do not expect legislative rescue, reinforcing the market's lean against passage.
- Resolution requires the bill to be signed into law by end of 2026; the Senate cloture failure makes that mechanically very difficult without a new vote and a changed coalition.
- Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 remains a long shot Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket puts 8% odds on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026.
- The Senate failure to advance the bill is consistent with this near-floor pricing; the market had already discounted legislative success before the setback.
- The CFTC submitting its own crypto framework to the White House suggests regulatory action is proceeding on an executive track, reducing urgency for legislative action this year.
- The Kalshi Senate vote ladder implies fewer than 50 yea votes on a crypto market structure bill, confirming the market does not see the votes available to pass the Clarity Act.
- Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 5%
- The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 sits at just 5%, resolves via UMA oracle.
- The Senate's 49-50 procedural failure is consistent with the 5% pricing; the bill would need to clear the Senate and presidential signature before year-end.
- The Kalshi Senate Yea vote ladder confirms the market saw a sub-50 outcome as the most likely scenario before the vote was taken.
- The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on a signed-into-law outcome; Senate failure at the procedural stage makes House reconsideration or Senate reattempt the only remaining paths.
- Clarity Act signed into law this year stays a long shot Polymarket 8%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 at just 8%.
- Senate collapse of the crypto bill is consistent with Polymarket's low probability, with the House Bitcoin reserve bill passage offering an alternative but narrower crypto legislative path.
- A Kalshi ladder on Senate Yea votes for a crypto market structure bill implies a market-implied outcome below 50 votes, corroborating the Senate's evident resistance.
- Resolution: Polymarket settles via its UMA oracle, requiring verifiable signing by the President.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
"slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"us-legislation",
"crypto-regulation",
"2026-events",
"trump-administration",
"policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3878170,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Congress.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the government of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}