Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | $100K | $3.88M | A | 0x9cb23d…f390 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633 sources (2) · single authority
congress.gov venue-listed official information from the government of the United States from rules text
recent wire items
- Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 17%
- Polymarket prices a 17% chance the CLARITY Act is signed into law by the end of 2026, keeping it a clear long shot.
- SEC proposing Regulation Crypto adds regulatory momentum, but the Polymarket contract shows markets do not treat this as a near-term legislative lock.
- The Senate yea-vote ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implying sub-50 votes reinforces the 17% full-enactment price; passage and signature are two separate hurdles.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the contract requires presidential signature by December 31, 2026, not just Senate passage.
- CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 19%
- Polymarket prices the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 19%, a clear long-shot read.
- Trading volume on this Polymarket contract surged 1,787% day over day, reflecting a flood of fresh activity after the Senate delay announcement.
- The Kalshi Senate vote-count ladder (CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6) implies fewer than 50 Yea votes, consistent with passage risk: 37% at 50 votes, falling sharply above.
- The September 15 procedural vote is a hard gate; failure there would almost certainly push the probability to single digits for the 2026 deadline.
- CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 31%
- The Polymarket contract puts 31% odds on the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026.
- The coordinated White House and SEC push on the Senate is a meaningful escalation, but the market at 31% reflects skepticism that legislative timing will align before year-end.
- The STS Digital CEO's warning of delayed US crypto regulation as a headwind is broadly consistent with the market staying well below 50%.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the midterms sits at 46%, meaning post-midterm legislative dynamics add further uncertainty to the 2026 window.
- Clarity Act signed into law this year stays below 30 percent Polymarket 28%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices a 28% chance the Clarity Act is signed into law in 2026.
- The SEC and CFTC pursuing their own parallel regulatory framework via Project Crypto is consistent with below-30% odds on the standalone legislative path.
- A competing agency-driven approach could reduce Congress's urgency to pass the Clarity Act, putting further downward pressure on the Polymarket contract.
- Resolution is via UMA oracle; the contract requires a presidential signature on the Clarity Act before year-end 2026.
- CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 priced below 40% Polymarket 39%
- Polymarket prices a 39% chance the Clarity Act is signed into law in 2026, a minority probability reflecting real legislative uncertainty.
- Stalled Senate talks are consistent with the sub-40% read; the market is not pricing the bill as likely to pass this year.
- Bitcoin's drop to below $64,700 (Story 34/35) correlates with the legislative setback, but the BTC price-level ladder (CM-EVT-R55TT711T7) already implies Bitcoin below $67,500 by July 31 at 61%, suggesting the market had priced in weakness before the stall.
- Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the bill requires Senate Republican votes plus Democratic crossover support, the resolution trigger is presidential signature.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
"slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"us-legislation",
"crypto-regulation",
"2026-events",
"trump-administration",
"policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 3878170,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Congress.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the government of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}