Clarity Act passage by year-end holds below 25%

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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091404",
  "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 at 21%, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Despite a make-or-break Senate cloture vote Tuesday and Trump backing the bill with new ethics concessions, Polymarket still puts better than 3-in-4 odds against passage this year.",
    "Bitcoin trading near $77,000-$80,000 (Story 30, 32) is a correlated signal, crypto asset prices are rallying on legislative hope even as the prediction market stays skeptical on actual enactment.",
    "Passage requires Senate cloture, floor vote, House concurrence, and presidential signature all before December 31, 2026, a tight sequential path that explains the discount."
  ],
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      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
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          "source": "Garrett Downs",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/clarity-act-senate-vote-crypto-regulation.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
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      "significance": {
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        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
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      "story": "The Senate is set to hold a crucial procedural cloture vote Tuesday on the Clarity Act, which would establish a new regulatory framework for crypto assets.",
      "publisher": "Garrett Downs",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/clarity-act-senate-vote-crypto-regulation.html"
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        "notes": {
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      "notes": "Polymarket's 21% is a meaningful long-shot pricing: the market acknowledges real momentum but assigns high probability to the bill failing one of its remaining legislative hurdles."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
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  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Garrett Downs: Clarity Act faces crucial Senate vote Tuesday in big moment for crypto",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/clarity-act-senate-vote-crypto-regulation.html",
      "published_at": "2026-09-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
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