Clarity Act signed into law by 2026 stays a long shot

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091508",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 sits at just 5%, resolves via UMA oracle.",
    "The Senate's 49-50 procedural failure is consistent with the 5% pricing; the bill would need to clear the Senate and presidential signature before year-end.",
    "The Kalshi Senate Yea vote ladder confirms the market saw a sub-50 outcome as the most likely scenario before the vote was taken.",
    "The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on a signed-into-law outcome; Senate failure at the procedural stage makes House reconsideration or Senate reattempt the only remaining paths."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "AFP  and  Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Clarity Act, the crypto industry's flagship market-structure bill, collapsed in a Senate procedural vote, failing to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to advance.",
      "publisher": "AFP  and  Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 5% is consistent with the Senate failure; resolution requires the full legislative gauntlet, not just a Senate re-vote."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
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  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "AFP  and  Reuters: US Senate crypto bill collapses in blow to industry | Crypto News | Al",
      "url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/9/15/us-senate-crypto-bill-collapses-in-blow-to-industry",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T21:31:48.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:02:46+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}