Clarity Act signed into law stays a long shot

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100504",
  "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744",
  "target_event_slug": "clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) be signed into law by 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 at just 5%, consistent with the Senate blocking it.",
    "The Senate vote against the CLARITY Act aligns with the market's near-zero probability; the pricing and the news are in agreement.",
    "Treasury's withdrawal of crypto surveillance rules is a separate regulatory concession that does not rescue the broader legislative framework.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket's uma_oracle; the contract requires a presidential signature by end of 2026, a bar the Senate block makes near-impossible this year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "John Chen",
          "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-treasury-withdraws-crypto-surveillance-rules/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T16:44:30+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US Senate blocked the CLARITY Act and the US Treasury separately withdrew proposed crypto surveillance rules on unhosted wallets and mixing.",
      "publisher": "John Chen",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-treasury-withdraws-crypto-surveillance-rules/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 5% is the only priced candidate; the companion Bitcoin-drop story (Story 32) provides corroborating market context."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
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  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "John Chen: US Treasury withdraws proposed crypto surveillance rules on unhosted w",
      "url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/us-treasury-withdraws-crypto-surveillance-rules/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-05T16:44:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}