CO-05 Republican hold odds slip below 50 percent

Name: CO-05 Republican hold odds slip below 50 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 34%

record: CMSIG2026080507 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FMXJH0P4G0 | published: 2026-08-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket contract puts only 34% on Republicans holding CO-05 in 2026, making it a lean-Democratic seat on the prediction market.
Democrats formally adding CO-05 to their targeting list is consistent with the below-50% Republican pricing.
Companion contracts show GOP holding IN-08 at 94% and OK-03 at 94%, illustrating CO-05 is an outlier among Republican-held seats.
Resolves via UMA oracle based on official 2026 election results for Colorado's 5th congressional district.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: House Democrats expanded their targeting map to 12 new GOP-held districts including Colorado's 5th, held by Lauren Boebert.exa_search → new admin · as_of 2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00
publisher: new admin
published_at: 2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://associattedpress.com/house-democrats-targeting-12-new-gop-held-districts-including-lauren-boebert-and-nrcc-chair-richard-hudsons-seats/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract at 34% for Republican win; among the lowest GOP-hold probabilities across targeted districts in the data.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/co-05-house-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xbc533740775ffabd04d60009b45332c2a6f8cba43813bdf7b9577c5d0196a25d

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/co-05-house-seat-for-republicans-in-2026-polymarket-34-2026-08-05/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/co-05-house-seat-for-republicans-in-2026-polymarket-34-2026-08-05.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("co-05-house-seat-for-republicans-in-2026-polymarket-34-2026-08-05")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080507",
  "published_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FMXJH0P4G0",
  "target_event_slug": "co-05-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the CO-05 House seat be won by a Republican in the 2026 election?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract puts only 34% on Republicans holding CO-05 in 2026, making it a lean-Democratic seat on the prediction market.",
    "Democrats formally adding CO-05 to their targeting list is consistent with the below-50% Republican pricing.",
    "Companion contracts show GOP holding IN-08 at 94% and OK-03 at 94%, illustrating CO-05 is an outlier among Republican-held seats.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle based on official 2026 election results for Colorado's 5th congressional district."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "new admin",
          "source_url": "https://associattedpress.com/house-democrats-targeting-12-new-gop-held-districts-including-lauren-boebert-and-nrcc-chair-richard-hudsons-seats/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "House Democrats expanded their targeting map to 12 new GOP-held districts including Colorado's 5th, held by Lauren Boebert.",
      "publisher": "new admin",
      "published_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://associattedpress.com/house-democrats-targeting-12-new-gop-held-districts-including-lauren-boebert-and-nrcc-chair-richard-hudsons-seats/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 34% for Republican win; among the lowest GOP-hold probabilities across targeted districts in the data."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/co-05-house-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "new admin: House Democrats targeting 12 new GOP-held districts, including Lauren",
      "url": "https://associattedpress.com/house-democrats-targeting-12-new-gop-held-districts-including-lauren-boebert-and-nrcc-chair-richard-hudsons-seats/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-08T08:35:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026080507 published 2026-08-05T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-9ba2868f974… ← underlying event all signals →