Will the CO-05 House seat be won by a Republican in the 2026 election? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 98.8% | — | $9.3K | B | 0xbc5337…a25d | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 3.9% | — | $943 | B | 0xb00b60…13df | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x260e44…ace6 | ||
| Will A win the CO-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6122c3…8ba6 | ||
| Will B win the CO-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdb93ca…35c9 | ||
| Will C win the CO-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4625eb…42bf | ||
| Will D win the CO-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x875003…e9c9 | ||
| Will E win the CO-05 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x54edbe…c265 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- Traders split near evenly on Republican hold of CO-05 58% · $14K 24h
- At 58% on Polymarket, the Republican hold of CO-05 is favored but far from certain, a genuine toss-up zone.
- $14K in 24h is 45% of all-time volume, pointing to a sharp uptick in Election Day attention on this race.
- CO-05 has trended competitive in a redistricted environment; 58% reflects meaningful Democratic threat.
- Resolves on the certified 2026 CO-05 House race result.
- Republican win in CO-05 holds below 30% Polymarket 28%
- The Polymarket contract on a Republican winning Colorado's 5th congressional district sits at 28%, making it a decided underdog.
- The late money wave described in the news is not yet reflected as a GOP-favorable shift; Polymarket keeps Republicans well below 50% in CO-05.
- By contrast, Polymarket prices Republicans at 96% in Ohio's 11th district and 95% in Oklahoma's 3rd, showing the ad dollars are targeting genuinely contested seats.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle following official district election certification.
- CO-05 Republican hold odds slip below 50 percent Polymarket 34%
- The Polymarket contract puts only 34% on Republicans holding CO-05 in 2026, making it a lean-Democratic seat on the prediction market.
- Democrats formally adding CO-05 to their targeting list is consistent with the below-50% Republican pricing.
- Companion contracts show GOP holding IN-08 at 94% and OK-03 at 94%, illustrating CO-05 is an outlier among Republican-held seats.
- Resolves via UMA oracle based on official 2026 election results for Colorado's 5th congressional district.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/co-05-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/co-05-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("co-05-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FMXJH0P4G0",
"slug": "co-05-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the CO-05 House seat be won by a Republican in the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026-midterm",
"colorado-politics",
"house-races",
"us-congressional"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10270,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}