CPI above 3.7 percent for year ending July nears consensus

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071405",
  "published_at": "2026-07-14T05:01:05.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "event_question": "CPI year-over-year rate for year ending July 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices CPI for the year ending July 2026 at 70% above 3.7% and 29% above 3.8%, with the distribution anchored firmly in the 3.7-3.8% range.",
    "With May CPI already at 4.2%, the market is pricing meaningful disinflation into July while still keeping the headline well above the Fed's 2% target.",
    "The 3.7-3.8% modal range is consistent with the core CPI ladder's sub-3% read: headline inflation seen falling faster than core, likely via energy base effects.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for the 12 months ending July 2026; any print above 3.9% represents a significant upside surprise against current pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "en.bloomingbit.io",
          "source_url": "https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/116190",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "South Korea is advancing digital asset legislation this year, but the CPI ladder tied to July 2026 data reflects the dominant macro narrative of persistent inflation above 3.7%.",
      "publisher": "en.bloomingbit.io",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T05:01:05.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/116190"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's July CPI ladder is the longest-dated inflation read in this batch, showing the market expects headline to fall roughly 40-50 basis points from the May 4.2% print by next month."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
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  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "en.bloomingbit.io: South Korea to Push Digital Asset Law This Year, Speed Rules for Won S",
      "url": "https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/116190",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T05:01:05.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
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}