Will inflation in June 2026 be measured by year-over-year CPI? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-10 ]

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in June 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 21 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ 3.6%	2026-07-14	0.0%	—	$2.7K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.6`
≥ 3.8%	2026-07-14	0.0%	$2.6K	$11K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.8`
≥ 2.5%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$426	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…2.5`
≥ 2.6%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$1.6K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…2.6`
≥ 2.7%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$332	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…2.7`
≥ 2.8%	2026-10-13	89.0%	—	$3.3K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…2.8`
≥ 2.9%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$431	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…2.9`
≥ 3%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$646	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.0`
≥ 3.1%	2026-10-13	99.0%	$77	$537	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.1`
≥ 3.2%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$1.2K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.2`
≥ 3.3%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$1.3K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.3`
≥ 3.4%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$2.1K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.4`
≥ 3.5%	2026-10-13	99.0%	—	$2.1K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.5`
≥ 3.7%	2026-10-13	92.0%	$500	$8.0K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.7`
≥ 3.9%	2026-10-13	54.0%	$3.1K	$7.7K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…3.9`
≥ 4%	2026-10-13	23.0%	$2.8K	$6.0K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…4.0`
≥ 4.1%	2026-10-13	18.0%	$2.3K	$3.0K	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…4.1`
≥ 4.2%	2026-10-13	7.0%	$171	$971	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…4.2`
≥ 4.3%	2026-10-13	4.0%	$1	$115	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…4.3`
≥ 4.4%	2026-10-13	3.0%	$0	$38	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…4.4`
≥ 4.5%	2026-10-13	2.0%	$0	$26	A	`KXCPIYOY-26J…4.5`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Bureau of Labor Statistics	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 21 markets · share this text

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 2.5% in the twelve months ending June 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗

sources (1) · single authority

Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in June 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-14`	`0%`
NO	Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in June 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-14`	`0%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-07-14T09:55:02+00:00 volume-spike
Traders lock in June CPI breach above 3.6% as near-certainty 99% · $80K 24h
- 99% price leaves virtually no doubt: market reads June CPI print as confirmed above 3.6%.
- Kalshi sees $79,972 in 24h, 45% of the contract's entire all-time volume in a single session.
- Resolution likely imminent as the BLS June CPI release lands mid-July, driving late positioning.
- Contract resolves on official BLS year-over-year figure; near-zero residual uncertainty priced.
2026-07-14T09:55:02+00:00 volume-spike
Above-3.8% June CPI absorbs heavy capital near resolution 29% · $22K 24h
- 29% price means the market assigns meaningful but minority odds to a sharper 3.8%+ inflation print.
- $22,275 in 24h, 28% of all-time volume, clusters with the 3.6% contract in a twin-threshold play.
- Paired positioning across 3.6% and 3.8% levels signals traders stress-testing the upper CPI tail.
- Both Kalshi CPI contracts resolve on the same BLS June data release, collapsing timing uncertainty.
2026-07-14T05:01:05.000Z momentum-repricing
CPI above 3.7 percent for year ending July nears consensus Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi prices CPI for the year ending July 2026 at 70% above 3.7% and 29% above 3.8%, with the distribution anchored firmly in the 3.7-3.8% range.
- With May CPI already at 4.2%, the market is pricing meaningful disinflation into July while still keeping the headline well above the Fed's 2% target.
- The 3.7-3.8% modal range is consistent with the core CPI ladder's sub-3% read: headline inflation seen falling faster than core, likely via energy base effects.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for the 12 months ending July 2026; any print above 3.9% represents a significant upside surprise against current pricing.
2026-07-11T15:32:15.000Z momentum-repricing
CPI above 3.7 percent consensus anchors on tariff shock Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 72% on CPI above 3.7% for the year ending July 2026, with probability collapsing to 24% above 3.8% and 4% above 3.9%.
- Fed officials divided on inflation views is consistent with a distribution clustered tightly between 3.7% and 3.8%, not at a clean consensus level.
- The sharp drop from 72% to 24% between 3.7% and 3.8% shows the market has a narrow modal range, not broad uncertainty.
- Resolves via official CPI data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the 12-month period ending in July 2026.
2026-07-10T13:00:55.000Z momentum-repricing
CPI above 3.7 percent nears full pricing on inflation repricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies CPI for the year ending July 2026 at 3.70-3.80%, with 73% above 3.70% but only 25% above 3.80%; volume rose 81x day over day.
- The inflation pricing sits in direct tension with Standard Chartered's bullish Bitcoin call, which assumes improving risk sentiment and a softer macro backdrop.
- A CPI print firming above 3.7% would reinforce the FOMC freeze narrative and undercut the rate-cut assumptions embedded in many year-end crypto bull cases.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; the volume surge suggests traders are actively repositioning around the upcoming print, not waiting.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxcpiyoy-26jun`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxcpiyoy-26jun")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
  "slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
  "question": "Will inflation in June 2026 be measured by year-over-year CPI?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "inflation",
    "cpi",
    "us-economy",
    "2026",
    "economic-indicator"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 21,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 53154,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →