CPI above 3.7 percent by July hardens as consensus range
Kalshi ladder
record: CMSIG2026062503 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4 | published: 2026-06-25
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi ladder implies CPI in the 3.7-3.8% range for the year ending July: 67% above 3.7%, dropping to 28% above 3.8%.
- The 4.1% PCE print, the catalyst behind the crypto liquidation wave, is a different index but a directionally consistent read for CPI trajectory.
- The sharp cliff from 67% to 28% between the 3.7% and 3.8% strikes marks the market's key inflection level; above 3.8% is priced as a tail.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for the relevant month.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- The May PCE print at 4.1% triggered a $1.48 billion crypto liquidation wave and renewed rate-hike fears across risk assets.exa_search → Lawrence Mondal · as_of 2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- Lawrence Mondal
- published_at
- 2026-06-25T15:53:20.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi distribution concentrates probability in a narrow 3.7-3.8% band, signaling consensus rather than uncertainty about the CPI range.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/cpi-above-3-7-for-year-ending-july-kalshi-67-2026-06-25/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/cpi-above-3-7-for-year-ending-july-kalshi-67-2026-06-25.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("cpi-above-3-7-for-year-ending-july-kalshi-67-2026-06-25") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026062503",
"published_at": "2026-06-25T15:53:20.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FC6YNQPJV4",
"target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jun",
"event_question": "CPI year-over-year rate for month ending July 2026",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi ladder implies CPI in the 3.7-3.8% range for the year ending July: 67% above 3.7%, dropping to 28% above 3.8%.",
"The 4.1% PCE print, the catalyst behind the crypto liquidation wave, is a different index but a directionally consistent read for CPI trajectory.",
"The sharp cliff from 67% to 28% between the 3.7% and 3.8% strikes marks the market's key inflection level; above 3.8% is priced as a tail.",
"Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release for the relevant month."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "Lawrence Mondal",
"source_url": "https://crypto.news/bitcoin-triggers-1-48b-liquidation-wave-after-pce-inflation-fuels-rate-fears/",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "The May PCE print at 4.1% triggered a $1.48 billion crypto liquidation wave and renewed rate-hike fears across risk assets.",
"publisher": "Lawrence Mondal",
"published_at": "2026-06-25T15:53:20.000Z",
"source_url": "https://crypto.news/bitcoin-triggers-1-48b-liquidation-wave-after-pce-inflation-fuels-rate-fears/"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi distribution concentrates probability in a narrow 3.7-3.8% band, signaling consensus rather than uncertainty about the CPI range."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxcpiyoy-26jun/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.8",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "Lawrence Mondal: Bitcoin triggers $1.48B liquidation wave after PCE inflation fuels rat",
"url": "https://crypto.news/bitcoin-triggers-1-48b-liquidation-wave-after-pce-inflation-fuels-rate-fears/",
"published_at": "2026-06-25T15:53:20.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T01:35:43+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1