Democrats heavily favored to win the House in 2026

Name: Democrats heavily favored to win the House in 2026
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 86%

record: CMSIG2026091303 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63 | published: 2026-09-13

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi contract prices Democrats winning the House at 86%, resolving via Library of Congress.
CNN analysis flags Republican structural defenses that could cap Democratic gains, but the market is not fading the wave narrative at this price level.
The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at 48%, implying the Senate remains genuinely contested as the House leans Democratic.
The Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) at 86% for Republicans winning the House appears directionally contradicted by the Kalshi contract at 86% for Democrats; treat both with caution pending clarification of resolution scope.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Analysis finds a Democratic wave building for the 2026 midterms but notes Republicans are constructing structural barriers to limit seat losses.exa_search → Ronald Brownstein · as_of 2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00
publisher: Ronald Brownstein
published_at: 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/democrats-republicans-midterms-2026

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress records of House composition following the 2026 midterm elections.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/controlh-2026/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/CONTROLH-2026-D

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-09-13/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-09-13.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("democrats-win-us-house-2026-kalshi-86-2026-09-13")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091303",
  "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
  "target_event_slug": "controlh-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices Democrats winning the House at 86%, resolving via Library of Congress.",
    "CNN analysis flags Republican structural defenses that could cap Democratic gains, but the market is not fading the wave narrative at this price level.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at 48%, implying the Senate remains genuinely contested as the House leans Democratic.",
    "The Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) at 86% for Republicans winning the House appears directionally contradicted by the Kalshi contract at 86% for Democrats; treat both with caution pending clarification of resolution scope."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ronald Brownstein",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/democrats-republicans-midterms-2026",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Analysis finds a Democratic wave building for the 2026 midterms but notes Republicans are constructing structural barriers to limit seat losses.",
      "publisher": "Ronald Brownstein",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/democrats-republicans-midterms-2026"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress records of House composition following the 2026 midterm elections."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/controlh-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/CONTROLH-2026-D",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ronald Brownstein: Why Democrats’ blue wave might not be as big as expected | CNN Politic",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/13/politics/democrats-republicans-midterms-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-13T13:04:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091303 published 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-4d2089271da… ← underlying event all signals →