Fed rate cut above 25bp stays a long shot this year

Name: Fed rate cut above 25bp stays a long shot this year
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 1%

record: CMSIG2026101401 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-10-14

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi puts only 1% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points in 2026.
The Fed delivered a 25bp hike and signaled more tightening, the Kalshi contract is fully consistent with a no-cut posture for the rest of the year.
New York Fed President John Williams separately said he sees no need for rate hikes in 2027, which frames this as a near-term tightening cycle with a soft landing signal further out.
Resolves via the Federal Reserve's own rate decisions; any cut larger than 25bp before year-end would trigger YES.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2023, defying President Trump's demands for a cut, and signaled another possible hike later this year.exa_search → wbrz.com · as_of 2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00
publisher: wbrz.com
published_at: 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.wbrz.com/videos/federal-reserve-hikes-key-rate-for-first-time-in-3-years-defying-trump-demands-for-a-cut/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract at 1% leaves essentially no room for a large dovish pivot in 2026, consistent with both the hike and Williams' 2027 guidance.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-1-2026-10-14/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-1-2026-10-14.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-25bp-in-2026-kalshi-1-2026-10-14")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101401",
  "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 1% odds on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points in 2026.",
    "The Fed delivered a 25bp hike and signaled more tightening, the Kalshi contract is fully consistent with a no-cut posture for the rest of the year.",
    "New York Fed President John Williams separately said he sees no need for rate hikes in 2027, which frames this as a near-term tightening cycle with a soft landing signal further out.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's own rate decisions; any cut larger than 25bp before year-end would trigger YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "wbrz.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.wbrz.com/videos/federal-reserve-hikes-key-rate-for-first-time-in-3-years-defying-trump-demands-for-a-cut/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2023, defying President Trump's demands for a cut, and signaled another possible hike later this year.",
      "publisher": "wbrz.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wbrz.com/videos/federal-reserve-hikes-key-rate-for-first-time-in-3-years-defying-trump-demands-for-a-cut/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 1% leaves essentially no room for a large dovish pivot in 2026, consistent with both the hike and Williams' 2027 guidance."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "wbrz.com: Federal Reserve hikes key rate for first time in 3 years, defying Trum",
      "url": "https://www.wbrz.com/videos/federal-reserve-hikes-key-rate-for-first-time-in-3-years-defying-trump-demands-for-a-cut/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-14T13:17:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101401 published 2026-10-14T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-413710241ea… ← underlying event all signals →