Fed jumbo cut consensus breaks away after hot jobs data

Name: Fed jumbo cut consensus breaks away after hot jobs data
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 10%

record: CMSIG2026060501 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-06-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi puts only 10% on the Fed cutting more than 25 basis points in a single meeting, reflecting deeply suppressed easing expectations.
May's blowout jobs print is consistent with this low probability, reinforcing that aggressive cuts are off the table for now.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits an economy with inflation above 2% for five straight years, complicating any dovish pivot.
Companion Kalshi contract on any Fed cut before 2027 sits at just 19%, underscoring the market's view that even modest easing is unlikely this year.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: May payrolls surged 172,000, beating forecasts and pushing Fed rate-cut expectations further out as new Chair Kevin Warsh faces a stagflationary policy dilemma.exa_search → Jeff Cox · as_of 2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00
publisher: Jeff Cox
published_at: 2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z
source_url: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; a 50bps-or-larger cut in any single meeting would be required for resolution.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bps-in-single-meeting-kalshi-10-2026-06-05/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-25bps-in-single-meeting-kalshi-10-2026-06-05.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-25bps-in-single-meeting-kalshi-10-2026-06-05")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060501",
  "published_at": "2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 10% on the Fed cutting more than 25 basis points in a single meeting, reflecting deeply suppressed easing expectations.",
    "May's blowout jobs print is consistent with this low probability, reinforcing that aggressive cuts are off the table for now.",
    "New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits an economy with inflation above 2% for five straight years, complicating any dovish pivot.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on any Fed cut before 2027 sits at just 19%, underscoring the market's view that even modest easing is unlikely this year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeff Cox",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May payrolls surged 172,000, beating forecasts and pushing Fed rate-cut expectations further out as new Chair Kevin Warsh faces a stagflationary policy dilemma.",
      "publisher": "Jeff Cox",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; a 50bps-or-larger cut in any single meeting would be required for resolution."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeff Cox: Hot jobs report puts Fed cuts further out of reach as Chair Warsh face",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/hot-jobs-report-puts-fed-cuts-further-out-of-reach-as-chair-warsh-faces-policy-tests.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-06T10:00:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026060501 published 2026-06-05T17:44:14.000Z signature sha256-3178bb46bc0… ← underlying event all signals →