Odds on a large Fed cut this year remain a long shot

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072503",
  "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 8% on the Federal Reserve delivering a rate cut larger than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.",
    "Goldman Sachs commentary on rising consumer prices is consistent with the Kalshi contract staying near single digits on outsized cuts.",
    "With the July meeting expected to hold and September flagged as a potential hike, the 8% figure reflects markets pricing out meaningful easing entirely.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; any cut of 50 basis points or more at any 2026 meeting would trigger settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sat, July 25, 2026 at 10:17 AM EDT   5 min read",
          "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/goldman-sachs-pitches-eye-opening-141700426.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Goldman Sachs flagged eye-opening Fed rate-bet dynamics against a backdrop of persistent inflation and rising gasoline and food prices.",
      "publisher": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sat, July 25, 2026 at 10:17 AM EDT   5 min read",
      "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/goldman-sachs-pitches-eye-opening-141700426.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi binary contract; the 8% reading is consistent with across-the-board ladder data showing a hold-to-hike bias through year-end."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mary Helen Gillespie      Sat, July 25, 2026 at 10:17 AM EDT   5 min read: Goldman Sachs pitches eye-opening view on Fed interest-rate bets",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/goldman-sachs-pitches-eye-opening-141700426.html",
      "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-28T10:30:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}