Market wavers on Fed cut above 25 basis points after PCE spike
Kalshi 7%
record: CMSIG2026062302 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-06-23
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi prices just 7% on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points in a single move.
- The PCE forecast of 4.1% and hike expectations from economists are consistent with this deeply discounted cut probability.
- The Kalshi Fed funds ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) at 95% above 3.50% reinforces that markets see no near-term easing path.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; any single cut exceeding 25bp would require an abrupt policy reversal from the current Warsh posture.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- May PCE inflation forecast at 4.1% annually, its highest since April 2023, with economists predicting rate hikes rather than cuts.exa_search → morningstar.com · as_of 2026-06-24T10:45:49+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- morningstar.com
- published_at
- 2026-06-23T09:15:25.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi's 7% price on an outsized cut is tightly consistent with the concurrent Fed funds ladder showing rates anchored above 3.50%.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxlargecut-26/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bp-kalshi-7-2026-06-23/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bp-kalshi-7-2026-06-23.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-above-25bp-kalshi-7-2026-06-23") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026062302",
"published_at": "2026-06-23T09:15:25.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi prices just 7% on the Federal Reserve cutting by more than 25 basis points in a single move.",
"The PCE forecast of 4.1% and hike expectations from economists are consistent with this deeply discounted cut probability.",
"The Kalshi Fed funds ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) at 95% above 3.50% reinforces that markets see no near-term easing path.",
"Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decision; any single cut exceeding 25bp would require an abrupt policy reversal from the current Warsh posture."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "morningstar.com",
"source_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-expected-show-rising-inflation",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-24T10:45:49+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "May PCE inflation forecast at 4.1% annually, its highest since April 2023, with economists predicting rate hikes rather than cuts.",
"publisher": "morningstar.com",
"published_at": "2026-06-23T09:15:25.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-expected-show-rising-inflation"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi's 7% price on an outsized cut is tightly consistent with the concurrent Fed funds ladder showing rates anchored above 3.50%."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "morningstar.com: May PCE Expected to Show Rising Inflation | Morningstar",
"url": "https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-expected-show-rising-inflation",
"published_at": "2026-06-23T09:15:25.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-24T10:45:49+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1