Odds on a large Fed cut this year stay deep in long-shot territory
Kalshi 9%
record: CMSIG2026072206 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-07-22
4-bullet brief | narrative
- The Kalshi contract prices only 9% on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points this year.
- Despite job-loss headlines fueling cut speculation, the market gives barely one-in-ten odds on a larger-than-standard move.
- The rate-ladder consensus placing the Fed funds upper bound at 3.50-3.75% is consistent with at most one standard cut, not an aggressive easing cycle.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; a single 25bps cut would not trigger this contract.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- Fresh US labor market data showing 92,000 job losses fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could move toward rate cuts.exa_search → bitrss.com · as_of 2026-07-22T10:22:09+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- bitrss.com
- published_at
- 2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi at 9% shows the market treating large-cut speculation as noise against a backdrop of still-elevated inflation and a new Fed chair era.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxlargecut-26/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bps-this-year-kalshi-9-2026-07-22/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-above-25bps-this-year-kalshi-9-2026-07-22.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-above-25bps-this-year-kalshi-9-2026-07-22") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026072206",
"published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
"bullets": [
"The Kalshi contract prices only 9% on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by more than 25 basis points this year.",
"Despite job-loss headlines fueling cut speculation, the market gives barely one-in-ten odds on a larger-than-standard move.",
"The rate-ladder consensus placing the Fed funds upper bound at 3.50-3.75% is consistent with at most one standard cut, not an aggressive easing cycle.",
"Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; a single 25bps cut would not trigger this contract."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "bitrss.com",
"source_url": "https://bitrss.com/u-s-economy-loses-92-000-jobs-fueling-speculation-of-fed-rate-cuts-190760",
"retrieved_at": "2026-07-22T10:22:09+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "Fresh US labor market data showing 92,000 job losses fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could move toward rate cuts.",
"publisher": "bitrss.com",
"published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
"source_url": "https://bitrss.com/u-s-economy-loses-92-000-jobs-fueling-speculation-of-fed-rate-cuts-190760"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi at 9% shows the market treating large-cut speculation as noise against a backdrop of still-elevated inflation and a new Fed chair era."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "bitrss.com: U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs, Fueling Speculation of Fed Rate Cuts -",
"url": "https://bitrss.com/u-s-economy-loses-92-000-jobs-fueling-speculation-of-fed-rate-cuts-190760",
"published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-07-22T10:22:09+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1