Large Fed cut consensus collapses as hawkish posture holds

Name: Large Fed cut consensus collapses as hawkish posture holds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-14T12:36:10.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 8%

record: CMSIG2026071405 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-07-14

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices only an 8% chance the Federal Reserve cuts by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.
Warsh's hawkish 'no tolerance' inflation rhetoric is fully consistent with a market that has nearly priced out aggressive easing.
Polymarket simultaneously prices a 51% chance of a hike this year, creating a market picture skewed toward tightening rather than relief.
Resolution is determined by the Federal Reserve's own policy announcement; any cut must exceed 25 basis points at a single meeting to qualify.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh declared the Fed has 'no tolerance' for high inflation while offering no signals on the next policy move.exa_search → apnews.com · as_of 2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00
publisher: apnews.com
published_at: 2026-07-14T12:36:10.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/warsh-federal-reserve-inflation-4a1da547d64ae3d54fba29161b213601

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official policy decision; a series of 25bp cuts would not trigger resolution.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxlargecut-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-greater-than-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-8-2026-07-14/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-greater-than-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-8-2026-07-14.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-greater-than-25bps-in-2026-kalshi-8-2026-07-14")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071405",
  "published_at": "2026-07-14T12:36:10.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve do a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only an 8% chance the Federal Reserve cuts by more than 25 basis points at any point in 2026.",
    "Warsh's hawkish 'no tolerance' inflation rhetoric is fully consistent with a market that has nearly priced out aggressive easing.",
    "Polymarket simultaneously prices a 51% chance of a hike this year, creating a market picture skewed toward tightening rather than relief.",
    "Resolution is determined by the Federal Reserve's own policy announcement; any cut must exceed 25 basis points at a single meeting to qualify."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/warsh-federal-reserve-inflation-4a1da547d64ae3d54fba29161b213601",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh declared the Fed has 'no tolerance' for high inflation while offering no signals on the next policy move.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T12:36:10.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/warsh-federal-reserve-inflation-4a1da547d64ae3d54fba29161b213601"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve official policy decision; a series of 25bp cuts would not trigger resolution."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Warsh vows to crush inflation but offers no hint on the Fed’s next mov",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/warsh-federal-reserve-inflation-4a1da547d64ae3d54fba29161b213601",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T12:36:10.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T17:20:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071405 published 2026-07-14T12:36:10.000Z signature sha256-045bce15316… ← underlying event all signals →