Large Fed cut pricing fractures under Warsh hawkish debut
Kalshi 7%
record: CMSIG2026061902 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6 | published: 2026-06-19
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Kalshi prices only 7% on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points in a single meeting.
- Warsh's debut dot plot replaced projected cuts with a hike signal, and Kalshi's 7% is consistent with that hawkish pivot.
- Bitcoin and Ether fell on the FOMC outcome; the rate-cut trade that supported crypto pricing is now priced out at Kalshi.
- The Kalshi rate ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) shows only 36% above 3.75%, confirming cuts are not the base case but large cuts are near-zero.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market
- story
- New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at his debut meeting but shifted the dot plot to project hikes rather than cuts, inverting crypto market positioning.exa_search → bitget.com · as_of 2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- bitget.com
- published_at
- 2026-06-19T08:51:26.000Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Kalshi resolves via the Federal Reserve's own decision; the 7% price reflects the post-Warsh hawkish reprice of the cutting cycle.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
- cm_event
- /events/kxlargecut-26/
external
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25-bps-kalshi-7-2026-06-19/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-cut-over-25-bps-kalshi-7-2026-06-19.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("fed-cut-over-25-bps-kalshi-7-2026-06-19") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026061902",
"published_at": "2026-06-19T08:51:26.000Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6",
"target_event_slug": "kxlargecut-26",
"event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in a single action this year?",
"bullets": [
"Kalshi prices only 7% on the Fed cutting by more than 25 basis points in a single meeting.",
"Warsh's debut dot plot replaced projected cuts with a hike signal, and Kalshi's 7% is consistent with that hawkish pivot.",
"Bitcoin and Ether fell on the FOMC outcome; the rate-cut trade that supported crypto pricing is now priced out at Kalshi.",
"The Kalshi rate ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) shows only 36% above 3.75%, confirming cuts are not the base case but large cuts are near-zero."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "bitget.com",
"source_url": "https://www.bitget.com/amp/news/detail/12560605467929",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
},
"story": "New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at his debut meeting but shifted the dot plot to project hikes rather than cuts, inverting crypto market positioning.",
"publisher": "bitget.com",
"published_at": "2026-06-19T08:51:26.000Z",
"source_url": "https://www.bitget.com/amp/news/detail/12560605467929"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Kalshi resolves via the Federal Reserve's own decision; the 7% price reflects the post-Warsh hawkish reprice of the cutting cycle."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/kxlargecut-26/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXLARGECUT-26",
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "bitget.com: Kevin Warsh just killed crypto’s rate-cut trade. Here is what changes",
"url": "https://www.bitget.com/amp/news/detail/12560605467929",
"published_at": "2026-06-19T08:51:26.000Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-06-19T12:03:18+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "kalshi_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1