Fed funds above 4 percent stays likely after next decision

Name: Fed funds above 4 percent stays likely after next decision
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026103003 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 | published: 2026-10-30

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder puts 72% on the federal funds upper bound exceeding 4.0% after the next FOMC decision, but only 3% above 4.25%.
PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% in September; the news is hawkish, yet the market prices only a narrow slice of probability above 4.25%, suggesting one 25bp hike is priced but not a sustained hiking sequence.
The article in Investing.com notes the Fed's December hike is roughly 63% priced in, consistent with the Kalshi ladder's concentration between 4.0% and 4.25%.
Strikes below 4.0% are 98-99% priced as already-exceeded floors, confirming markets see no path back to prior accommodation in the near term.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: New PCE inflation and spending data show the economy running too hot, raising pressure on the Fed after its October wait-and-see decision by Chair Kevin Warsh.exa_search → Bryan Cutsinger · as_of 2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00
publisher: Bryan Cutsinger
published_at: 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-fed-wanted-more-data-it-got-more-inflation/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder covers the federal funds upper bound distribution post-next-FOMC; the market is consistent with one additional hike but sharply fades any aggressive tightening beyond 4.25%.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26dec/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-above-4-kalshi-72-2026-10-30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-above-4-kalshi-72-2026-10-30.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-above-4-kalshi-72-2026-10-30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026103003",
  "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after next FOMC decision",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts 72% on the federal funds upper bound exceeding 4.0% after the next FOMC decision, but only 3% above 4.25%.",
    "PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% in September; the news is hawkish, yet the market prices only a narrow slice of probability above 4.25%, suggesting one 25bp hike is priced but not a sustained hiking sequence.",
    "The article in Investing.com notes the Fed's December hike is roughly 63% priced in, consistent with the Kalshi ladder's concentration between 4.0% and 4.25%.",
    "Strikes below 4.0% are 98-99% priced as already-exceeded floors, confirming markets see no path back to prior accommodation in the near term."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Bryan Cutsinger",
          "source_url": "https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-fed-wanted-more-data-it-got-more-inflation/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "New PCE inflation and spending data show the economy running too hot, raising pressure on the Fed after its October wait-and-see decision by Chair Kevin Warsh.",
      "publisher": "Bryan Cutsinger",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-fed-wanted-more-data-it-got-more-inflation/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers the federal funds upper bound distribution post-next-FOMC; the market is consistent with one additional hike but sharply fades any aggressive tightening beyond 4.25%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Bryan Cutsinger: The Fed Wanted More Data. It Got More Inflation. | The Daily Economy",
      "url": "https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-fed-wanted-more-data-it-got-more-inflation/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026103003 published 2026-10-30T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-15af6b4dfcf… ← underlying event all signals →