Fed funds upper bound seen settling at 3.50-3.75%

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080302",
  "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound (next decision)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the federal funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 99% above 3.50%, but only 47% above 3.75%, and just 2% above 4.00%.",
    "Manufacturing survey inflation fears align with the market pricing in at least one more hike to 3.75%, but the distribution shows limited conviction beyond that level.",
    "The sharp drop-off above 3.75% suggests the market is not pricing an aggressive tightening cycle despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials.",
    "Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid's remarks (Stories 4 and 7) calling current policy non-restrictive are consistent with the ladder's modal range but the market is not fully pricing his implied path higher."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeff Cox",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/manufacturing-survey-shows-inflation-worries-adding-to-pressure-on-fed.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ISM Manufacturing survey showed robust factory conditions and elevated price pressures, with managers comparing pricing volatility to the Covid era.",
      "publisher": "Jeff Cox",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/manufacturing-survey-shows-inflation-worries-adding-to-pressure-on-fed.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve decision; the distribution is tightly concentrated at the 3.50-3.75% band with very thin tails above 4.00%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeff Cox: Manufacturing survey shows inflation worries adding to pressure on Fed",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/03/manufacturing-survey-shows-inflation-worries-adding-to-pressure-on-fed.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-06T10:35:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}