Fed funds upper bound seen settling at 4.0-4.25 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092201",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound following September 2026 FOMC",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the September 2026 Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 84% above 4.0%, only 38% above 4.25%, and just 5% above 4.50%.",
    "Multiple officials including St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem flagged more hikes needed, yet the Kalshi distribution shows the market sees this cycle near its peak rather than pricing a sustained march higher.",
    "The 4.50% strike at only 5% probability signals the market is largely fading aggressive hike-continuation rhetoric from Fed officials.",
    "The Kalshi contract resolves via the Federal Reserve's official announced upper bound following the September 2026 FOMC meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mike Dolan",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/losing-plot-warshs-fed-more-touchy-feely-than-data-driven-2026-09-22/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Reuters analysis questions whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is running a data-driven institution, as the September FOMC meeting delivered a rate hike amid persistent inflation.",
      "publisher": "Mike Dolan",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/losing-plot-warshs-fed-more-touchy-feely-than-data-driven-2026-09-22/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder data provides the full distribution; only the 4.0-4.25% zone carries meaningful probability mass, suggesting markets treat current hiking as a near-terminal move."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mike Dolan: Losing the plot? Warsh's Fed more 'touchy-feely' than data-driven | Re",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/losing-plot-warshs-fed-more-touchy-feely-than-data-driven-2026-09-22/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}