Fed funds upper bound stays near 4.25% after September hike

Name: Fed funds upper bound stays near 4.25% after September hike
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092701 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3 | published: 2026-09-27

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.25-4.50% range: 50% above 4.25%, only 10% above 4.50%.
J.P. Morgan's September hike call is consistent with the ladder's sharp drop above 4.25%, but markets give only 10% odds to a second consecutive hike landing above 4.50%.
The distribution implies the market is pricing one-and-done at 4.25-4.50%, not the full December follow-through J.P. Morgan forecasts.
A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) puts 66% above 4.00% but only 2% above 4.25%, suggesting that contract covers an earlier meeting window where the upper bound was lower.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: J.P. Morgan economists confirm the Fed hiked rates in September, its first hike in three years, and forecast one more hike at the December meeting in line with revised FOMC median projections.exa_search → Stephen Innes 🇨🇦 🇹🇭 · as_of 2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00
publisher: Stephen Innes 🇨🇦 🇹🇭
published_at: 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://thedarksideoftheboom.substack.com/p/jpm-answers-whats-the-feds-next-move

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder resolution is tied to the Federal Reserve's official post-meeting rate announcement; any inter-meeting action would settle at that new bound.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfed-26dec/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.50

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-at-4-25-4-5-kalshi-50-2026-09-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-funds-upper-bound-at-4-25-4-5-kalshi-50-2026-09-27.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-funds-upper-bound-at-4-25-4-5-kalshi-50-2026-09-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092701",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after September 2026 meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound in the 4.25-4.50% range: 50% above 4.25%, only 10% above 4.50%.",
    "J.P. Morgan's September hike call is consistent with the ladder's sharp drop above 4.25%, but markets give only 10% odds to a second consecutive hike landing above 4.50%.",
    "The distribution implies the market is pricing one-and-done at 4.25-4.50%, not the full December follow-through J.P. Morgan forecasts.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) puts 66% above 4.00% but only 2% above 4.25%, suggesting that contract covers an earlier meeting window where the upper bound was lower."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Stephen Innes 🇨🇦 🇹🇭",
          "source_url": "https://thedarksideoftheboom.substack.com/p/jpm-answers-whats-the-feds-next-move",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "J.P. Morgan economists confirm the Fed hiked rates in September, its first hike in three years, and forecast one more hike at the December meeting in line with revised FOMC median projections.",
      "publisher": "Stephen Innes 🇨🇦 🇹🇭",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://thedarksideoftheboom.substack.com/p/jpm-answers-whats-the-feds-next-move"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolution is tied to the Federal Reserve's official post-meeting rate announcement; any inter-meeting action would settle at that new bound."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.50",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Stephen Innes 🇨🇦 🇹🇭: J.P. Morgan Answers: What’s the Fed’s next move?",
      "url": "https://thedarksideoftheboom.substack.com/p/jpm-answers-whats-the-feds-next-move",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T07:47:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092701 published 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-1fe4ab7a3c7… ← underlying event all signals →