Fed funds upper bound prices in at 4.25 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092701",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound after next meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound at 4.25%, with 52% odds above 4.25% but only 4% above 4.50%, implying market sees 4.25% as the likely ceiling.",
    "Inflation and jobs-focused news flow is consistent with the ladder's near-50/50 split at 4.25%; the market is not yet committing to a further hike beyond that level.",
    "Volume surged 82.5x day over day on this Kalshi contract, a strong signal fresh capital is positioning around the October FOMC decision.",
    "The sharp drop from 52% at 4.25% to just 4% at 4.50% signals the market treats 4.50% as a tail scenario, not a base case, heading into key PCE and NFP prints."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/09/27/jobs-report-inflation-data-to-test-us-rate-path-economic-strength/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T07:47:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Investors are watching employment and inflation data to assess chances of a sharper rate-hike trajectory, with markets already pricing more than 50% odds of a Fed hike at the October FOMC meeting.",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/09/27/jobs-report-inflation-data-to-test-us-rate-path-economic-strength/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Federal Reserve announcement; volume spike of 8150% day over day confirms this is the active focus for FOMC positioning."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.50",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Reuters: Inflation's Impact on Interest Rates and Stocks - GV Wire",
      "url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/09/27/jobs-report-inflation-data-to-test-us-rate-path-economic-strength/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T07:47:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}