Fed funds upper bound after next meeting seen near 4.0-4.25 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101904",
  "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound after next FOMC meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts the post-meeting Fed funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 80% above 4.0%, but only 15% above 4.25%.",
    "Warsh's deliberate silence is not being treated as hawkish by the market: the 15% probability above 4.25% shows a hike beyond 4.25% is a long shot.",
    "The sharp drop from 80% at 4.0% to 15% at 4.25% implies the dominant scenario is a hold at 4.0-4.25%, not a step higher.",
    "The Polymarket emergency rate cut contract (CM-EVT-9J8QJ6ZDT4) sits at only 3%, confirming the market sees no tail risk in either extreme direction."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ahmed Azzam",
          "source_url": "https://www.equiti.com/jo-en/news/breaking-data/kevin-warsh-october-fed-rate-hike-global-tightening/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T07:47:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its October meeting, keeping all options open.",
      "publisher": "Ahmed Azzam",
      "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.equiti.com/jo-en/news/breaking-data/kevin-warsh-october-fed-rate-hike-global-tightening/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on the federal funds upper bound; Warsh's non-signal aligns with the market's narrow modal range rather than pricing in fresh hawkish risk."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ahmed Azzam: Kevin Warsh gives no signal on October Fed rate decision",
      "url": "https://www.equiti.com/jo-en/news/breaking-data/kevin-warsh-october-fed-rate-hike-global-tightening/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-20T07:47:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}