Fed funds upper bound seen firmly in the 4.0 percent range

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102806",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T18:04:42.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound following October 2026 meeting",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the federal funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range: 73% above 4.0% but only 3% above 4.25%, implying 4.0-4.25% as the consensus zone.",
    "The October hold at approximately 3.9% is consistent with the 73% probability above 4.0%, which reflects the widely reported December hike expectation.",
    "Trading volume on this ladder surged 75,618% day-over-day (757x), the largest attention signal in the macro cluster, reflecting post-decision repricing activity.",
    "Resolution is tied to the Federal Reserve's official policy announcement; the December meeting is the next scheduled opportunity to move the upper bound above 4.0%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Scott Horsley",
          "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/28/nx-s1-6020425/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T14:47:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Fed held rates steady at its October meeting, with Chairman Kevin Warsh signaling fewer rate-setting meetings in future years and investors anticipating a December hike.",
      "publisher": "Scott Horsley",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T18:04:42.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/28/nx-s1-6020425/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi ladder's volume surge at 757x day-over-day is the dominant macro signal in today's session, with the distribution firmly anchoring expectations between 4.0% and 4.25%."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26dec/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Scott Horsley: Fed holds interest rates steady despite stubborn inflation : NPR",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/28/nx-s1-6020425/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation",
      "published_at": "2026-10-28T18:04:42.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T14:47:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}