Fed funds upper bound stays near 3.50-3.75 percent

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080702",
  "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices the federal funds upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range: 98% above 3.50%, but only 35% above 3.75%.",
    "The CBS News report that September hike bets have collapsed is consistent with the ladder: above 4.00% sits at just 1%, suggesting markets have fully abandoned hike pricing.",
    "The sharp cliff between 3.75% (35%) and 4.00% (1%) is the market's clearest signal that a hold is the dominant scenario, not a cut.",
    "Resolution via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement; the named source in the contract is unspecified, but Fed policy decisions are public record."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-september-rate-decision-jobs-report-kevin-warsh/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Economists say the unexpected July job losses have sharply reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-september-rate-decision-jobs-report-kevin-warsh/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's distribution aligns tightly with economist commentary post-July payrolls, showing no residual hike premium above 4 percent."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: The Fed was expected to hike interest rates in September. Don't bet on",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/federal-reserve-september-rate-decision-jobs-report-kevin-warsh/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-10T09:14:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}